Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here? If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) […]
Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because last week’s 251,000 was revised 10,000 higher! The 4 week average rose another 6,250 to 249,250, a nearly 8 month […]
First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet) – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even […]
by Joseph Joyce The Increasing Debtor Status of the U.S. The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of a country reflects the difference between foreign assets owned by domestic residents and domestic liabilities held by foreign residents. The difference, positive or negative, determines a country’s status as an international creditor or debtor. The U.S. position, which […]
New home prices may have peaked after all – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote, “The median price of a new home increased 1.7% in June (not seasonally adjusted), and remained sharply higher YoY at 15.1%.” That’s true, but it wasn’t complete. The 15.1% figure is from the quarterly average. On a monthly basis, […]
New home sales continue to fall sharply, while prices for both new and existing homes continues to increase sharply New home sales declined further in June to 590,000 annualized and May was revised sharply lower as well: This was the lowest number since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020, and before that since December […]
“Who got rich off the student debt crisis?” – Reveal (revealnews.org), James B. Steele and Lance Williams A bit of a story of how we got to this student loan debt debacle. It is long, tedious, and not exciting. And this is only part of it. In 2016, 42 million people were owing $1.3 trillion in student […]
“The Grain Deal,” Econospeak by Barkley Rosser Finally we have something sort of hopeful happen in the war in Ukraine that might help alleviate problems it has generated for much of the world. A deal has been struck to allow Ukrainian grain to be exported from Odesa and two smaller ports near it across the […]
Weekly Indicators for July 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to this link yesterday, but my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The situation with the leading indicators continues to ever so slowly deteriorate. But there is some good news as well, as gas prices […]
The Eurozone is not an optimum currency area. The Euro as such was a bad idea to begin with. Notably, this was the standard view of US economists. The North American argument (originating in Canada) was that a currency should be used in an area within which people are willing to move to get a […]