Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well: This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders […]

Real retail sales decline again slightly

Real retail sales decline again slightly  – by New Deal democrat Nominal retail sales for the month of June rose 1.0%, and May was revised up by 0.2% from -0.3% to -0.1%. But since inflation was 1.3% in June and 1.0% in May, this makes the combined downturn in real retail sales -1.4% for the two […]

Weekly Indicators for July 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for July 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. We are at the point where I suspect that after the Q2 quarterly economic reports come out, and the Fed’s next meeting/rate hike, literally *all* of the long leading indicators will be […]

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well: This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders […]

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 244,000 last week, a 7.5 month high. The 4 week average rose 3,250 to 235,750, a 7 month high.  But the news wasn’t all negative, as continuing claims declined 41,000 to 1,331,000, which […]

Capture

Wikipedia offers an excellent synopsis of Regulatory Capture. In her book, Media Capture, Anya Schiffrin does so for Media Capture. In 1971, soon-to-be Associate Justice Lewis Powell Jr., then a corporate lawyer, wrote a memorandum to his friend Eugene B. Sydnor, Jr., Chair of the Education Committee of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce titled Attack […]

A Bad June CPI Report

June CPI report: bad, bad, bad, bad, bad  – by New Deal democrat In case for some reason you haven’t already heard, the inflation news for June was uniformly bad. Here is some of the carnage. For the month of June only:   overall inflation was up 1.3%, the highest monthly increase since 2005   […]

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions by New Deal democrat An important reason I focus on whether or not the economy is heading into recession is that during recessions income and jobs both decline for the middle and working classes as a whole. In that regard, Jared Bernstein, a […]