Dear Professor Krugman, Say Its Name!!! “Taboo” Paul Krugman is coming closer to embracing my “taboo” argument. A month ago I wrote that raising wages was becoming a taboo. I considered three alternative hypotheses: 1. monopsony (quoting Vox) [I]n recent years, economists have discovered another source: the growth of the labor market power of employers — namely, their […]
Real retail sales update for April 2018 It’s a slow start of the week, so let’s catch up on one of my favorite indicators, real retail sales, which were reported last week. First of all, adjusted for population, real retail sales have peaked a year or more in advance of each of the last two […]
Plan B on Iran Earlier today (Monday) ne US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, presented this administration’s “Plan B” at the Heritage Foundation on how to deal with Iran following the US’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the JCPOA. Pompeo presented 12 demands and threatened to impose “the strongest economic sanctions in history.” The Trump […]
by Cactusman H-2B, or Not to Be? A Look at Labor Shortages and Immigrant Labor Several publications recently ran stories on issues with the H-2B visa program and impending shortages that are affecting local economies of various parts of the country. For those who aren’t familiar, the H-2B program allows US employers to bring in […]
Dan here….Downsizing the home when retiring? How is that done? Anecdotal evidence in the Boston area reveals to me several reasons why downsizing is only a small percentage of the housing market: Aside from being able to handle maintenance to a later age than in the past, and wishing to maintain personal community that a […]
The current mania for “job guarantee” policies is making the Sandwichman anxious. I’ve been on the full employment beat for over 20 years so I think I have a pretty good grasp of the terrain. First principle is that there are no panaceas. My favorite policy option — reduction of working time — is not […]
by Joseph Joyce A Guide to the (Financial) Universe: Part III Parts I and II of this Guide appear here and here. 4. Stability and Growth Is the global financial system safer a decade after the last crisis? The response to the crisis by central banks, regulatory agencies and international financial institutions has increased the resiliency […]
The percentage of employees who don’t get wage raises; is the Taboo undergoing an “extinction burst”? I came across the below graph yesterday from the Kansas City Fed. It’s pretty shocking: It represents “wage rigidity.” In english, that means the percentage of employees who don’t get any annual wage increases. It speaks for itself. Nine […]
Intercompany Guarantee Fees and Trump’s Lido City Loan Matthew Yglesias notes: Trump stands to gain from an Indonesian project that got a $500 million loan right before he flip-flopped on ZTE… But it also happened the same week a Chinese state-owned company came through with hundreds of millions of dollars in loans, some of which will […]
R.I.P. bond bull market, 1981-2016 On September 30, 1981, the 10 year US Treasury bond yielded 15.84%. It has not been that high since. On July 8, 2016, it fetched only 1.37%. It is unlikely to see that low rate again for a very, very long time. Those two dates likely mark the birth and […]