March 2018 personal income and spending Programming note: I’ve been working on a mega-post about housing, that is now complete except for a few graphs. So, please excuse the brevity otherwise. March 2018 real personal income and spending were both positive. So far, so good. The personal saving rate fell slightly: Again, this is consistent […]
Last week I was browsing through one of the books on the shelf at work, which had in it three essays by the inter-war German Marxist Karl Korsch. One of the essays, a 1932 introduction to Capital mentioned mentioned a section in Chapter 24, “The So-Called Labour Fund” as exemplary of Marx’s critique of political […]
There has been a bit of commotion recently about the Job Guarantee idea (AKA employer of last resort). I don’t consider myself an opponent of the strategy but I do have several reservations about its political feasibility, the marketing rhetoric of its advocates, and its economic and administrative transparency. Some of these concerns I share […]
by New Deal democrat Don’t sweat the Q3 2017 job losses As an initial matter, this is a good time to remind you that the data is the data is the data. It’s not partisan. I’ve seen some of the same people who were touting “It’s still Obama’s economy” all last year (and I agree […]
by New Deal democrat Q1 2018 GDP downshifts slightly; long leading indicators mixed This morning’s preliminary reading of Q1 2018 GDP at +2.3%, down from the previous quarter’s +2.9%, was generally in line with forecasts. As usual, my attention is focused less on where we *are* than where we *will be* in the months and […]
(Dan here….lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) A New Pareto Liberal Paradox (reposted from 2004) One of the core principles of Liberalism is that there must be equality before the law. The law must not discriminate. In practice, this principle is often restricted to citizens and people are citizens only if they are born in the […]
Demographics, housing, and the economy Way back during the Great Recession, I first noted that demographics were about to become a tailwind for the housing market. The argument, in its simplest terms, is that the median age of first time home buyers is about 30, and the nadir of the “baby bust” was 1973-76. That […]
The consumer edges closer to the precipice In addition to my “long leading/short leading” model adapted from the work of Profs. Geoffrey Moore and Edward Leamer, and the “high frequency” weekly variation on the same, I also have several “alternate” recession forecasting models. The most noteworthy model is really a consumer nowcast. It turns on consumers […]
Whither Social Capital? This past Friday there was yet another retirement conference, this time honoring “Mr. Social Capital,” Robert S. Putnam, who is retiring from Harvard’s Kennedy School at age 77. I was not invited, but I know some people who attended, including my sister and brother-in-law, the latter speaking at the dinner as family, […]
Higher wage growth for job switchers: more evidence of a taboo against raising wages? Yesterday the Atlanta Fed published a note touting the wage growth for those who quit their jobs and transfer to a different line of work, writing that: Although wages haven’t been rising faster for the median individual, they have been for those […]