by Joseph Joyce The Rising Dollar The foreign currency value of the dollar has been rising. The nominal broad dollar index of the Federal Reserve shows the dollar has increased by about 9% since its low point a year ago while other indexes register larger gains. What does this mean for the U.S. and other economies? The appreciation […]
New home sales get walloped New single family home sales got walloped in April, declining -16.6% for the month compared with March, and down -26.9% from one year ago. Measured from their most recent peak last December, they are off -29.6%, and measured from their pandemic peak of August 2020, they are down a whopping […]
Inflation reversals as unique markers of Boom and Bust cycles vs. Fed interventions As I’ve already mentioned a couple of times, I am seeing posts from the usual DOOOMERS warning that a recession is imminent, if we’re not already in one. Typically – again, as per usual – they cite data that they never bothered […]
Planters have been running all out over the last few weeks as the envelope to get spring planted before summer heat and drought sets in even further. We will start with what the market was expecting yesterday and the results of the USDA Planted Progress Report as of yesterday. Discussed at length on yesterday’s Go […]
Boston Public Radio May 19th episode held a discussion of the consequences for the nation when abortion is outlawed. The guest was Jonathan Gruber, the Ford Professor of Economics at MIT. He was involved with the ACA and the Mass health insurance system. Getting right to it: Based on studies: Women who wanted an abortion […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in April after March Sales Revised 0.9% Higher Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.9% in April, after retail sales March were revised 0.9% higher, while sales for February were revised a bit lower . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for April (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated […]
Not quite star wars yet. The past and old age of warfare is changing as we watch the conflict in the Ukraine between one ill equipped small defender and the more modern equipped large attacker. It is only because of NATO and the US equipping Ukraine has the stubborn resistance held up. The lessons to […]
Expanding BRICS? Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping has called for the BRICS group to expand to include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Argentina, Nigeria, Senegal, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The original group, suggested by the research department at Goldman Sachs in 2001 as a group to leading future world economic growth was Brazil, Russia, India, and […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 34 year low, US oil supplies at a 17 year low, total oil + products inventories at a 13½ year low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 13th indicated that after a jump in […]
– by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The yield curve tightened some more this week (but did not invert). Meanwhile, I am seeing a fair amount of commentary suggesting that a recession is imminent. This is jumping the gun, and […]