by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Now that the Fed has all but assured a dovish stance going forward, the longer term forecast has become even more positive.
Does Turkish Lira Decline Mean Turkey Leaves NATO? Probably not, but Turkey is about to receive Russian S-400 missiles against US demands. More signifigantly the US will kill high level US F-35 agreements, and will not fly US planes over Turkey if it uses the Russian systems. This threatens Turkish membership in NATO. The immediate […]
Initial claims positive to start July, but trend in continuing claims the weakest in 9 years I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress.My two thresholds are: 1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low. 2. If the […]
Real average and aggregate wages improved in June Now that we have the June inflation reading, let’s finish out our week focusing on the labor market. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in June increased +0.2%, while consumer prices increased +0.1%, meaning real average hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased +0.1%. Together with upward […]
The Condition Of North Korean Conventional Weapons This is based on essentially gossip, or if you prefer, a rumor. I have been dining in Washington again and someone there who is in fact both well known and very well informed, but whom I shall not name, made a comment about the state of conventional weapons […]
The Rise of Global Innovation by US Multinationals Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon, and J. Bradford Jensen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics provide an interesting discussion of the risks and opportunities from the following: Total US R&D spending as a share of GDP increased slightly from 2.5 percent in 1999 to 2.7 percent in 2016.2 […]
May JOLTS report is weak, consistent with last month’s weak jobs report The jobs report one month ago was poor, so as expected the JOLTS report for May, released this morning, followed suit. To review, because this series is only 20 years old, we only have one full business cycle to compare. During the 2000s expansion: […]
Scenes from the June employment report As I (and everyone else) wrote on Friday, the establishment portion of the June jobs report was very good. On closer examination, though, the leading components of the report continued to show some weakness. To begin with, for months I’ve been following manufacturing, residential construction, and temporary employment as […]
The Expansion Of Assets With Negative Nominal Interest Rates Buried in the Weekend section of the Financial Times is a report that the aggregate value of assets that earn negative nominal yields has substantially expanded since the beginning of 2019 and has reached a new high. So on January 1, 2019, the value of these […]
Everybody and their brother has an opinion about the direction of long bond yields so it should be OK for me to stick my two cents worth in. This chart of the composite of all long bond yields versus the long wave is one I published every month on the back cover of my monthly […]