by New Deal democrat The consumer vs. the producer economy Prof. Edward Leamer wrote over a decade ago that, in a consumer led recession, first housing turns, then vehicle sales, then other consumer goods. What do home and vehicle sales tell us now about the economy, vs. corporate profits? This post is up at Seeking Alpha. […]
WARNING: another “debt ceiling debacle” is looming, and could cause nearly immediate recession It’s time to start to get seriously worried about another “debt ceiling debacle.” In 2011, the GOP refused to authorize a “clean” debt ceiling hike. The hike in the debt ceiling, for those who may not know, is necessary for the US […]
Friday evening the S&P 500 closed at 3013.77, up 20.2 % year to date. But much of that gain is just recovering from the drop in late 2019, as it is only up some 3.4% from September, 2019. This is the first time the S&P closed above 3000 and people are wondering if the market […]
Via Evonomics, Steve Keen critiques Norhaus’s model for predicting economic damage per degree of average temperature rise….nerdy, and includes graphs and math, but worth a look. By Steve Keen This piece is part of a series from Steve Keen, Climate Change and the Nobel Prize in Economics: The Age of Rebellion. In the previous post, Keen noted […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Now that the Fed has all but assured a dovish stance going forward, the longer term forecast has become even more positive.
Does Turkish Lira Decline Mean Turkey Leaves NATO? Probably not, but Turkey is about to receive Russian S-400 missiles against US demands. More signifigantly the US will kill high level US F-35 agreements, and will not fly US planes over Turkey if it uses the Russian systems. This threatens Turkish membership in NATO. The immediate […]
Initial claims positive to start July, but trend in continuing claims the weakest in 9 years I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress.My two thresholds are: 1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low. 2. If the […]
Real average and aggregate wages improved in June Now that we have the June inflation reading, let’s finish out our week focusing on the labor market. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in June increased +0.2%, while consumer prices increased +0.1%, meaning real average hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased +0.1%. Together with upward […]
The Condition Of North Korean Conventional Weapons This is based on essentially gossip, or if you prefer, a rumor. I have been dining in Washington again and someone there who is in fact both well known and very well informed, but whom I shall not name, made a comment about the state of conventional weapons […]
The Rise of Global Innovation by US Multinationals Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon, and J. Bradford Jensen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics provide an interesting discussion of the risks and opportunities from the following: Total US R&D spending as a share of GDP increased slightly from 2.5 percent in 1999 to 2.7 percent in 2016.2 […]