Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000: At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of […]
This is a brief and targeted commentary by EPI’s Josh Bivens to which I have added input. The Fed has been flailing away at the economy in the belief Labor is the issue. Josh contends, product or profit markups have been a major issue. He does provide a foundation for his posit. I look to […]
Properly measured, consumer inflation is only about 3.0% YoY, and the economy has experience Deflation since last June – by New Deal democrat One month ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. This morning’s report only confirmed […]
AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission by AAR to Bill McBride. Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and […]
Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next […]
Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some […]
I split these topics out from my other groupings of things found in my In-Box. I thought I would give it its own post as it considers environmental topics to include poverty, housing, nature, recycling, and business. All of which have an impact on the world we live in today. What is there is how […]
Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Israel, India, Italy, Brazil, …, and even the USA; around the world, we are seeing democracies lurching toward autocracy and/or theocracy. A hundred years from now, history will tell us what it was all about. It would help to know now. Though no common denominator stands out; one of the more […]
Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect of the revisions to the initial jobless claims data, and also the turning down of several sectors in the monthly jobs report. […]
CRFB’s FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2023 SOCIAL SECURITY TRUSTEES REPORT Analysis of the 2023 Social Security Trustees’ Report, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Social Security Dale Coberly: I reported a few days ago on CRFB’s “preliminary analysis” of the 2023 Social Security Trustees Report. I hoped to show then that though CRFB reported “true” facts, […]