Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag

Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag

 – by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000:

At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of more than 10%, especially in the 4 week average, or monthly, are a yellow caution flag for recession, and an increase of more than 12.5% which persists for at least 2 months is a red flag recession warning. 

And on a YoY basis, while the one week number is only up 7.7%, for the month of March (blue)they were up 11.0%. For the first 2 weeks of April (not shown) they are up 8.3% YoY so far. The 4 week average is up 11.1%. Continuing claims, which lag, are up 13.8%%:

Because of the 4 week average and the monthly YoY increase for March, a yellow caution flag remains warranted. It will take further increases into the 240’s that persist into May for the data to warrant a red flag recession warning.

Jobless claims: nobody is (still!) getting laid off, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat