Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag
Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag
– by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqPXnurQO2Yzrc5G7fHJs8opmtxVc_GOY3mm52muJq5h-IWmf8ctEr65hjGQ_nJjaJTF8R3JPi8CsDSWEGXttFL03BVKfwowaQoD4a0z0VgGg199zKJ2kTDJWwVR6h8ny2a1k_24QHrodn1_-BL4Gut314TMiuZLj6YeGq5M17OMz1g79ZsUPQcnCi0A/w400-h171/A91D4E63-8CF8-4A9C-8464-D60883775C51.jpeg)
At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of more than 10%, especially in the 4 week average, or monthly, are a yellow caution flag for recession, and an increase of more than 12.5% which persists for at least 2 months is a red flag recession warning.
And on a YoY basis, while the one week number is only up 7.7%, for the month of March (blue)they were up 11.0%. For the first 2 weeks of April (not shown) they are up 8.3% YoY so far. The 4 week average is up 11.1%. Continuing claims, which lag, are up 13.8%%:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiw0yd7B23P4bLXQr3tQo6lAubBs4w177DfrtOSTUCQxtMEM5cOIraPFU2xkovThFu5OuNO_f83V-gVtCMPepkHMT7w3_HcBonPgqeqsVKdsDKbIJ3vK3d9n_v6lpkdZuuUOWVLA2p5NBtHI8fpsN5aMOv7CiEYSgYfwOvssak9dwW2qHQP_UXVEpU1A/w400-h173/451872A5-A6D0-4A33-88E4-EE03EF6E6A3D.jpeg)
Because of the 4 week average and the monthly YoY increase for March, a yellow caution flag remains warranted. It will take further increases into the 240’s that persist into May for the data to warrant a red flag recession warning.
Jobless claims: nobody is (still!) getting laid off, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat