The debt limit denouement
The deal is much better than I expected for Democrats, and much worse for Republicans (preliminary summaries by Dayen and Stein). Of course, the whole thing was destructive and pointless and the deal is bad in the way one would expect – it includes work requirements for some food stamp and TANF recipients. On the plus side, these requirements are crafted to limit the number of people affected while letting the Republicans claim a “win”.
Over the past few weeks many observers and congressional Democrats criticized Biden for his relatively quiet approach to negotiations. I was sympathetic to this criticism. I initially thought the administration should keep attention focused on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and after that ship sailed I thought they should insist that compromise and bipartisanship required revenue increases as well as spending cuts. And I generally think the administration falls short on communications. Nonetheless, I tried not to criticize the administration too directly for its communications strategy, because sometimes it is best to negotiate quietly rather than in public and I thought this might be one of those times. Matt Yglesias offers this related observation:
If I may venture a general observation about the Biden Era, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this process has felt much more humiliating to the White House than the Obama Era equivalent and yet the substantive outcome is a lot better. Biden frustrated a lot of his allies on the Hill over the past month by not having more of a communications strategy, but the best insight the president has brought to all his bipartisan legislating is that the less said the better in order to negotiate in private around real demands rather than in public around positions. Case in point, part of this deal is a modest trim to Democrats’ plans to fund the tax police. That’s borderline absurd — of all the spending to cut, why one that increases the deficit? But the reason is Republicans love rich tax cheats! You could call them out on their hypocrisy or you can give them a win that matters a lot to them and that is compatible with Biden’s main priorities.
Yglesias makes the following point about Biden’s negotiating strategy:
In the short-term, dismissing the viability of the strategies around the 14th Amendment, the platinum coin, and premium bonds was a huge mistake. The spin that this wouldn’t work because of judicial uncertainty won’t hunt. The president could — and should! — have said that his preference was to avoid using those options because of his limited confidence in the courts and because the financial system doesn’t like wackiness. But he still should have preserved them as options he would prefer to use rather than signing a terrible deal. In any kind of negotiation, you need a Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA) and “I’m going to sell premium bonds and fight it out in court” is a much better BATNA than “there’s going to be a default.”
I am not sure this is right. Emphasizing the availability of these work-arounds could have increased the risk of a breach by reducing the pressure to compromise. And a breach could have been very bad for both the country and for Biden’s re-election prospects (which would also have been very bad for the country). If Biden advertised these work-arounds and then they failed and led to a financial crisis he might have ended up taking the blame. In addition, the best play for Biden in the event we hit the debt ceiling may well have been prioritization of interest payments and trying to turn the debt ceiling into a kind of government shut down – slow building pain rather than financial catastrophe.
AP: Debt ceiling deal: What’s in, what’s out
The details of the deal between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy were released Sunday in the form of a 99-page bill that would suspend the nation’s debt limit through 2025 to avoid a federal default while limiting government spending.
The Democratic president and Republican speaker are trying to win over lawmakers to the plan in time to avert a default that would shake the global economy. But Congress will be scrutinizing and debating the legislation, which also includes provisions to fund medical care for veterans, change work requirements for some recipients of government aid and streamline environmental reviews for energy projects.
McCarthy said the House will vote on the legislation Wednesday, giving the Senate time to consider it before June 5, the date when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States could default on its debt obligations if lawmakers did not act in time.
Some hardline conservatives have expressed early concerns that the compromise does not cut future deficits enough, while Democrats have been worried about proposed changes to work requirements in programs such as food stamps. …
With the details of the deal now clear, here’s what’s in and out:
TWO-YEAR DEBT LIMIT SUSPENSION, SPENDING LIMITS
The agreement would keep nondefense spending roughly flat in the 2024 fiscal year and increase it by 1% the following year, as well as suspend the debt limit until January 2025 — past the next presidential election.
For the next fiscal year, the bill matches Biden’s proposed defense budget of $886 billion and allots $704 billion for nondefense spending.
The bill also requires Congress to approve 12 annual spending bills or face a snapback to spending limits from the previous year, which would mean a 1% cut.
The legislation aims to limit federal budget growth to 1% for the next six years, but that provision would not be enforceable starting in 2025.
Overall, the White House estimates that the plan would reduce government spending by at least $1 trillion, but official calculations have not yet been released.
VETERANS CARE
The agreement would fully fund medical care for veterans at the levels included in Biden’s proposed 2024 budget blueprint, including a fund dedicated to veterans who have been exposed to toxic substances or environmental hazards. Biden sought $20.3 billion for the toxic exposure fund in his budget.
UNSPENT COVID MONEY
The agreement would rescind about $30 billion in unspent coronavirus relief money that Congress approved through previous bills. It claws back unobligated money from dozens of federal programs that received aid during the pandemic, including rental assistance, small business loans and broadband for rural areas. …
The legislation protects pandemic funding for veterans’ medical care, housing assistance, the Indian Health Service, and some $5 billion for a program focused on rapidly developing the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments.
IRS FUNDING
Republicans targeted money that the IRS was allotted last year to crack down on tax fraud. The bill bites into some IRS funding, rescinding $1.4 billion.
WORK REQUIREMENTS
The agreement would expand work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps — a longtime Republican priority. But the changes are pared down from the House-passed debt ceiling bill.
Work requirements already exist for most able-bodied adults between the ages of 18 and 49. The bill would phase in higher age limits, bringing the maximum age to 54 by 2025. But the provision expires, bringing the maximum age back down to age 49 five years later, in 2030.
Democrats also won some new expanded benefits for veterans, homeless people and young people aging out of foster care. That would also expire in 2030, according to the agreement.
The agreement would also make it slightly harder for states to waive work requirements for SNAP for certain individuals. Current law allows states to issue some exemptions to the work rules on a discretionary basis, but limits how many people can be exempted. The agreement would lower the number of exemptions that a state can issue and curb states’ ability to carry over the number of exemptions they can hand out from month to month.
The agreement would also make changes to the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families program, which gives cash aid to families with children. While not going as far as the House bill had proposed, the deal would make adjustments to a credit that allows states to require fewer recipients to work, updating and readjusting the credit to make it harder for states to avoid.
SPEEDING UP ENERGY PROJECTS
The deal puts in place changes in the National Environmental Policy Act for the first time in nearly four decades that would designate “a single lead agency” to develop and schedule environmental reviews, in hopes of streamlining the process. It also simplifies some of the requirements for environmental reviews, including placing length limitations on environmental assessments and impact statements.
Agencies will be given one year to complete environmental reviews, and projects that are deemed to have complex impacts on the environment will need to be reviewed within two years.
The bill also gives special treatment to the Mountain Valley Pipeline — a West Virginia natural gas pipeline championed by Sens. Joe Manchin and Shelley Moore Capito — by approving all its outstanding permit requests.
STUDENT LOANS
Republicans have long sought to reel back the Biden administration’s efforts to provide student loan relief and aid to millions of borrowers during the coronavirus pandemic. While the GOP proposal to rescind the White House’s plan to waive $10,000 to $20,000 in debt for nearly all borrowers failed to make it into the package, Biden agreed to put an end to the pause on student loan repayment.
The pause in student loan repayments would end in the final days of August. …
WHAT’S LEFT OUT
House Republicans passed legislation last month that would have created new work requirements for some Medicaid recipients, but that was left out of the final agreement. The idea faced stiff opposition from the White House and congressional Democrats, who said it would lead to fewer people able to afford food or health care without actually increasing the number of people in the workforce.
Also absent from the final deal is the GOP proposal to repeal many of the clean energy tax credits Democrats passed in party-line votes last year to boost the production and consumption of clean energy. McCarthy and Republicans have argued that the tax breaks “distort the market and waste taxpayer money.”
The White House has defended the tax credits as resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars in private-sector investments, creating thousands of manufacturing jobs in the U.S.
Text of the 99-page bill
Kramer et al
I am not any snarter than you so don’t take this personally.
Biden (and McCarthy)’s dance around the “won’t negotiate” “not serious” debte was the cleverest way to come out of the Insane Right give us everything or the economy gets it demand. All of the “should have done” would have spoiled that possibility entirely, not just “reduced the pressure to compromise.” The ultimate compromise is ugly but it could be worked with without causing too much, or any, real harm. EXCEPT FOR the “streamlining” of the pipeline deal turning it into immediate approval. Unless they have something clever they are still keeping from us, that amounts to major harm to all of us, and unless it’s a real necessity to save us from all having to learn to say yes sir in Russian, it is a real crime against humanity…unfortunately consistent with the appearnce that Biden is sold out to Big Oil, or the whole country is entirely owned by Big Oil.
So, you are objecting to this ‘compromise’ which will keep the US from defaulting on its debt payments just because the Dems sucked up to Manchin & the Kochs over their natural gas pipeline.
‘The bill also gives special treatment to the Mountain Valley Pipeline — a West Virginia natural gas pipeline championed by Sens. Joe Manchin and Shelley Moore Capito — by approving all its outstanding permit requests.’
I wouldn’t put it that way. I admire the way Biden and McCarthy danced around the hard Right “we’ll kill the economy if you don’t give us everything” and the soft Left “we’ll throw ourseves on the ground and scream until we turn blue in the face if you even look like you are gonna cut “benefits for the poor.”
I was, until I saw the compromise, very much in favor of the invoking the fourteenth amendment and going ahead and paying our bills whatever the “debt ceiling” or the Supreme Court said. When I read the early report of the agreement I said there is nothing there we can’t manage without hurting anyone.
Then I read the “approving all outstanding permit requests, to hell with the environment” details. Then I felt like I was one of the fooled.
So forget the “so you wanted to default rather than give in to Manchin” implication. That was not the choice. What the hell did the pipeline have to do with the deficit anyway?
We need to take that debt ceiling gun off the table.
Vote the taxes at the same time you vote the program, or vote the borrowing. Any “debt ceiling” should apply only to money not already spent.
And if the debt is a real problem, raise taxes.
and dont blame Social Security ( but do raise the Social Security tax one tenth of one percent any time “short range” projections look like SS will not be able to pay full benefits. The tax increase will pay for the benefits the people paying the tax will need.)
I guess I will object because they seem to have backed off on ending tax breaks for carried interest.
Carried Interest Loophole Survives
(At least I think they did.)
Coberly:
Nothing clever is planned two years out. Tax rates will change though in 2025. Biden knows this.
run
i don’t see where any of this had to be planned two years out. unless you are saying taxes will be raised in 2025?
or the Koch et al take over of the government was not clever? apparently it didn’t need to be.
coberly:
The trump tax break was passed under reconciliation. It has yet to produce the promised increased revenues. It will sunset. Tax Breaks
Run
thanks. you nkow more about this stuff than i do.
i am not sure the R’s won;t find a way to say it “really” produced. Ony reckless Dem spending masked the results. and who knows what 2025 will look like. if the R’s have power they will just vote another tax break.
and, oddly enough, the D’s will demand one for “the poor” people. Nobody wants to pay taxes.
coberly:
Biden will try to keep the tax breaks for the lower to mid incomes, increasing for the higher incomes such as going back to 39.5% for the upper bracket.
Run
a policy I agree with, of course. But I do have some objection to people with incomes above average who think of themselves as “poor” who are fine with raising taxes on the rich, which of course they are not.
and as you know a dollar a week imcrease in the payroll tax even for the poorest (who, at one tenth of a percent of income, would pay more like an extra 50 cents per week) is necessary and should not be used as an excuse to cripple Social Security by complaining bitterly about “a tax increase on the poor.”
related subject: i read (scanned) an article on The American Prospect with more details and commentary on the debt agreement. Taught me I still know nothing about it. I will nevertheless continue to offer my uninformed opinions but try to be sure that readers know i know that i don’t know….but thisk they might be worth thinking about nonetheless.
wonderful typo i caught in time: uniformed opinions.
My third blush is as the first and second: Nice Guy Uncle Joe gave the repubs a way to exit the mess they created gracefully, to talk themselves out of the corner they talked themselves into. I’m not real sure that I like that. Not to advocate default but … at some point in time someone has to punch the bully in the nose. Call the ball.
I don’t necessarily think the public would have blamed Biden …
Ten Bears
I agree about punching bullies in the nose.
But a default would have been so bad that who gets the blame is not important.
As it turned out, I think the agreement was a master-stroke. I suspect McCarthy had to be in on it. We still have to see how it works out.
The crazies got nothing out of it, but that won’t stop them, or their base from claiming victory.
Ten Bears:
Much of the public only knows Dems and Repubs and minorities take government supposed freebies. Look out for the border crossers too! Population growth was at its lowest level. About 2040 and White America will not be a majority. I think it is time to start being nice to minorities and immigrants.
Run
good advice always. but first don’t assume that all us white folk are not nice to minorities.
but also don’t be surprised when the new majority turns out to be just like the old majority.
Debt Limit Bill Heads to Key Committee in First Test
NY Times – May 30
Legislation to raise the government debt ceiling and set federal spending limits begins its obstacle-laden route through Congress on Tuesday with consideration by a crucial panel where it will face its first test, as congressional leaders rush to win passage before a default projected in less than a week.
The House Rules Committee is typically a rubber stamp for party leaders, but the panel includes some hard-right Republicans whom Speaker Kevin McCarthy added in January to help him win over conservatives during his battle for the speakership. Now that concession could prove problematic, with far right lawmakers in revolt over the debt limit deal between Mr. McCarthy and President Biden.
They have argued that the plan does not cut spending substantially enough and threatened to use their seats on the panel to try to block it from the floor.
The committee is scheduled to meet at 3 p.m. to consider the ground rules for bringing the package to a vote as early as Wednesday. The bill was finalized on Sunday after Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy sealed their deal, and aides rushed to draft it into legislation that will have to be considered swiftly to avoid a default as soon as June 5, when Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has estimated the federal government will run out of cash to pay its bills without action by Congress.
Two of the Rules Committee’s arch-conservative members, Representative Chip Roy of Texas and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, have registered strong opposition to the measure and could vote against allowing it to move forward, in a sharp break with the speaker. If they are joined by another Republican on the committee, they could sideline the agreement before it even reaches the floor. …
(NY Times story updated just now.)
… Hard-right Republicans were in open revolt on Tuesday over Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s deal with President Biden to raise the government debt ceiling and set federal spending limits, threatening the legislation — and potentially Mr. McCarthy’s job — as the bill began an obstacle-laden route through Congress.
“Not one Republican should vote for this bill,” Representative Chip Roy, a Texas Republican and influential member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, said at a news conference outside the Capitol. “We will continue to fight it today, tomorrow, and no matter what happens, there’s going to be a reckoning about what just occurred unless we stop this bill by tomorrow.”
Another member of the group, Representative Dan Bishop of North Carolina, said he considered the deal grounds for ousting Mr. McCarthy from his post, something that any one lawmaker can attempt thanks to a rule Mr. McCarthy agreed to while he was grasping for the votes for his job.
“I’m fed up with the lies. I’m fed up with the lack of courage, the cowardice,” Mr. Bishop said, adding later of Mr. McCarthy’s negotiations on the debt limit bill, “Nobody could have done a worse job.” …
The fierce assault on the legislation came just hours before the House Rules Committee was to consider the measure and set the parameters for a vote the Republican leadership hopes to hold Wednesday before handing off the issue to the Senate. Time is of the essence for the bill, with a default projected in less than a week if Congress fails to act.
While the panel is typically a rubber stamp for party leaders, the committee includes Mr. Roy and other right-wing Republicans whom Mr. McCarthy added in January to help him win over conservatives during his battle for the speakership. …
… “I’m fed up with the lies. I’m fed up with the lack of courage, the cowardice,” Mr. Bishop said, adding later of Mr. McCarthy’s negotiations on the debt limit bill, “Nobody could have done a worse job.”
Despite the outcry, Mr. McCarthy continued to express optimism that the legislation would pass, shrugging off the criticism and dismissing any concern for his own survival with a terse “no” during brief comments at the Capitol.
“I’m confident we’ll pass the bill,” Mr. McCarthy told reporters. Ticking off what he described as major savings in the package, he added: “If people are against saving all that money, or work reforms in welfare reform — I can’t do anything about that.” …
(Further updates …)
The backlash to the plan from the right appeared to be fueled in part by mounting public opposition from conservative advocacy groups with strong ties to Republican lawmakers, including the Heritage Foundation, the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks. The groups were promising to include the vote in their ratings of lawmakers, effectively threatening to downgrade anyone who supported it.
“The legislation does not meet the moment, and I urge House Republicans to reconsider their support and take a stand to stop reckless spending,” said Adam Brandon, the president of FreedomWorks.
With Republicans experiencing early defections, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat and minority leader, warned that they would still have to deliver a significant number of votes in support.
“Initially we heard that 95 percent of the House Republican conference would support the agreement,” said Mr. Jeffries, alluding to a comment Mr. McCarthy made after briefing his rank and file about the deal. “That doesn’t appear to be the case. But what we are also committed to making sure occurs is that the House Republicans keep their promise to produce at least 150 votes.”
As for where Democrats stood, Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington and chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said the group was polling its members to decide whether to take an official position on the bill. She said the legislation included provisions that she and her members were extremely concerned about, including restrictions on nutritional assistance programs and the greenlighting of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, but did not vow to oppose it. …
How come nobody talks about corporate welfare like for oil and gas producers, farmers, and defense contractors?
Ron DeSantis weighs in…
The decision by Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida to oppose the debt-ceiling agreement struck by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden injected presidential politics into the fraught effort to raise the government’s borrowing limit, further dividing the Republican Party and pressuring other White House hopefuls to join the fight.
“Our country was careening toward bankruptcy” before the deal was struck, Mr. DeSantis said on “Fox and Friends” on Monday, “and after this deal, our country will still be careening toward bankruptcy.” …
Ron DeSantis, Wading Into Debt-Ceiling Fight …
So far, former President Donald J. Trump, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has stayed quiet. Mr. Trump has been kept abreast of the negotiations by Mr. McCarthy, whom the former president has called “my Kevin” and has kept as a close ally. …
NY Times – May 30
… Mr. Trump’s rise in 2015 and 2016 ushered out an era when Republicans at least spoke of fiscal responsibility. He put an end to the party’s efforts to overhaul Social Security and Medicare to control the programs’ rising costs. His tax cuts in 2017 sent deficits skyward. They were accompanied by increases in military spending, then huge expenditures on coronavirus relief.
Deficits rose every year of the Trump presidency, from the $590 billion he inherited in the 2016 fiscal year to $670 billion in 2017, $780 billion in 2018, $980 billion the next year, then a staggering $3.13 trillion in the pandemic year of 2020. In all, budget forecasters say, Mr. Trump added $7.8 trillion in deficit spending over 10 years through legislation and executive orders during his four years in office.
That has given his rivals an opening that so far, only Mr. DeSantis has taken. …
Didn’t Dick Cheney say that Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter? Ah, well, consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, right?
Kinda right. You can always print money as the nation is monetarily sovereign.
How to Use the Debt Ceiling to Inflict Cruelty on the Poor
NY Times – May 17
Seen from outside Washington, the debt ceiling battle might seem like an abstract argument between the political parties over federal spending and deficits. But for millions of low-income Americans who depend on the federal government for health care and basic nutrition, the debate is about their very lives. That’s because Republicans have singled them out, yet again, as a prime target in this year’s extortion scheme.
The bill that Speaker Kevin McCarthy muscled through the House last month would impose tough new work requirements on Medicaid, food stamps (now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP) and welfare for needy families. The demands would effectively cut off health care for 1.7 million low-income people and cut off food stamps for 275,000 people. House Republicans say that if their demands are not met, they will refuse to raise the debt ceiling, plunging the country into an unprecedented default and almost certainly creating a recession. …
… The bill that Speaker Kevin McCarthy muscled through the House last month would impose tough new work requirements on Medicaid, food stamps (now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP) and welfare for needy families. The demands would effectively cut off health care for 1.7 million low-income people and cut off food stamps for 275,000 people. House Republicans say that if their demands are not met, they will refuse to raise the debt ceiling, plunging the country into an unprecedented default and almost certainly creating a recession.
It’s not that there is some crisis or scandal gripping those federal programs; Republicans are making these demands simply because the debt ceiling gives them the opportunity to do so. And they are going after the same group of people their party has demonized for decades.
“I don’t think hard-working Americans should be paying for all the social services for people who could make a broader contribution and instead are couch potatoes,” said Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida. (His deep concern about excessive spending didn’t stop him from requesting a $141.5 million earmark for a helicopter training hangar at Naval Air Station Whiting Field in his district.)
“Couch potatoes” isn’t that far from the “welfare queen” myth conjured by Ronald Reagan …
CHIPS Act Funding for Science and Research Falls Short
NY Times – May 30
A renewed focus on the need to rein in federal spending has raised concerns about whether a bipartisan law that dedicates billions to advancing scientific research as well as revitalizing the American semiconductor industry will receive all of its promised funding.
President Biden and House Republican leaders have reached an agreement in principle to limit federal spending over the next two years in exchange for suspending the debt ceiling and averting the risk of an economic catastrophe.
But some lawmakers and other proponents of the bipartisan law, the CHIPS and Science Act, have grown worried that limits on government spending could undercut the legislation’s ambitious goals of bolstering the nation’s scientific edge and countering China’s technological rise.
The debt ceiling deal cuts so-called nondefense discretionary funding — which includes scientific research — for the 2024 fiscal year. It also limits all discretionary spending to 1 percent growth in 2025, which is effectively a budget cut since that is likely to be slower than the rate of inflation. …
Earlier today I said I thought the debt bill was a masterpiece of getting around the crazies and I thought that McCarthy had to have cooperated in the show.
Since then I have heard subsequent remarks by McCarthy and they are so dumb and destructive I have to guess that he is so dumb he did not know that the agreement he was signing gave him and the crazies nothing they demanded.
This can happen. Every time the crazy right talks they reveal that absolutely nothing in their universe matters but money. Seems they are including children in their work requirement to get food stamps. No reason for an able bodied child not to get a job and make some money…to grow the economy I suppose. “I had a paper route when I was three, and look at how good I turned out.”
So, maybe what it will take to get this ‘masterpiece’ enacted into law is, after Matt Gaetz or one of the other right-wingers boot Kevin M out is for the 105 Progressive Dems to all vote him back in again, and then have a vote on the Biden Bill and hope that enuf GOP ‘moderates’ (outside the Freedom Caucus’) will vote aye to save the world economy. Stranger things have happened, maybe.
well, to be clear, i only called it a masterpiece because it got us out of the crazies’ default threat without giving them anything they couldn’t have gotten without the threat.
it remains to be seen if we can actually prevent all the damage that what they got that they could have got anyway will cause.
and…fat chance… the voters will have seen how ugly and stupid and dangerous they are.
In TS Eliot’s ‘The Hollow Men’, the world ends not with a bang, but a whimper.
Is that what’s in store for us?
‘it remains to be seen if we can actually prevent all the damage that what they got that they could have got anyway will cause.’ (Huh?)
Why would they want to allow that to be done?
They wouldn’t. We should.
Re “Huh?”
read slowly.
I’m going with MSNBC’s sanguine optimism that this is a done deal and it’s going to get the needed votes before we have to declare bankruptcy, Trump-style. Read that, slowly.
Dobbs
my “read that slowly” was in response to your “Hunh?” which I took to be a response to my rather complex syntax.
I have no idea wha your respnse to my response means.
Any way, the chatter on MSNBC tonight seemed pretty upbeat that the measure was going to get the necessary approval, and that it had cleared the House Rules committee.
Despite growing Republican opposition, a key committee voted to move the bill forward to the House floor.
NY Times – tonight
A bipartisan deal to suspend the federal debt ceiling advanced on Tuesday night toward a climactic House vote despite a rebellion by hard-right Republicans who said the party was squandering a chance to force fundamental changes in government spending.
In the legislation’s first test, the House Rules Committee voted to clear the way for debate on the plan to be held Wednesday. Seven Republicans voted to send the measure on, while two others joined with Democrats to oppose doing so. …
(And why did Dems vote to oppose it?)
Newsweek – Four Democrats and two Republicans on the House Rules Committee voted against the deal backed by Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a key House decision.
Despite the opposition, on a vote of 7-6, the bill advanced to the House floor, where the full House of Representatives will debate the measure on Wednesday. …
Two Republicans, Representatives Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Chip Roy of Texas, and all four of the committee’s Democrats, voted against the measure. …
House Set to Vote on Debt Limit Bill …
NY Times – just in
Speaker Kevin McCarthy toiled on Wednesday to lock down the votes to pass his deal with President Biden to lift the debt ceiling and set federal spending limits, as a stream of defections from hard-right lawmakers put the fate of the measure in question.
With the nation’s first-ever default looming in days, the House was on track to begin votes Wednesday afternoon on a plan to suspend the nation’s borrowing limit for two years in exchange for two years of spending caps and a string of policy concessions Republicans demanded.
To muster a 218-vote majority to push it through the closely divided House, congressional leaders must cobble together a coalition of Republicans willing to back it and enough Democrats to make up for what was shaping up to be a substantial number of G.O.P. defections. …
… The speaker and his deputies have expressed confidence that they will have the votes to pass the legislation, though it was not clear whether they would have to rely on support from Democrats in procedural votes to clear its way for passage — a remarkably rare occurrence that would be seen as a major defeat. Mr. McCarthy, a California Republican, has repeatedly said that he would secure the support of a majority of his conference — an unwritten but virtually inviolable rule long adhered to by speakers of both parties for bringing up legislation.
“I’m confident we’ll pass the bill,” Mr. McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday. Ticking off what he described as critical savings in the compromise, he added: “If people are against saving all that money, or work reforms in welfare reform — I can’t do anything about that.”
In a closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday night that lasted over an hour, Mr. McCarthy and his negotiators sought to sell their conference on the compromise, saying that Democrats had not scored any victories in the bipartisan talks and that his team had fought strenuously against the White House to prevent tax increases and secure new work requirements for social safety net programs, according to lawmakers who attended.
“In a progressive-left administration and Democratic Senate, we will now have new work requirements,” Representative Patrick T. McHenry of North Carolina, one of the Republican negotiations, said at a news conference following the meeting. “We have conservative reforms that are included in this debt ceiling, and these things should help Republicans rally to the cause.” …
But even as the meeting unfolded, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the changes in work requirements for food stamp eligibility — tightening them for some adults, but loosening them for others, including veterans — would actually increase federal spending on the program by $2 billion. Overall, the budget office estimated the deal would make an additional 78,000 people eligible for nutrition assistance.
As Republicans met in the basement of the Capitol, the Rules Committee voted to advance the bill to the House floor on a narrow vote, with two ultraconservative members of the panel bucking their party to oppose allowing the plan to be considered.
With defections from House Republicans stacking up, it remained unclear how many votes Democrats would need to provide to pass the bill and send it to the Senate. Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader, said on Tuesday that Mr. McCarthy had not told him how many Democrats would need to vote for the bill to ensure its passage, but he said Republicans had pledged to produce at least 150 votes for the measure. That would mean several dozen Democrats would have to vote yes to secure passage. …
Ignoring the likelihood that all 35 ‘Freedom Caucus’ GOP members will presumably vote NO, if the necessary Dem votes do not come forward to pass this legislation, then whatever remains of the GOP leadership can plausibly assert that ‘it’s all the Dems fault’ and their people will accept this (nonsense.)
Gut feeling: The Dem Left will not accept this assertion, may take to blaming the Dem Center.
Dobbs
I don’t know about “plausibly,” but I am sure the R base will accept whatever they say. My guess is that somehow by magic the bill will pass and the R’s and Progressives will each have the same “talking points” they always have.
Surely you’ve observed GOP adherents seemingly believing all sorts of BS that us ‘good guys’ (Dems) know is just utter nonsense. So, to them it’s plausible.
yes. to them all things republican are plausible.
more than plausible: morally certain.
but that doesn’t make them plausible.
71 GOP members voted no, which is about twice the number of those in the Freedom Caucus. 46 Dem members voted no, which is slightly less than half the number in the Progressive bloc.
165 Dem members voted yes, more than the 148 GOP members
Ahead of House debt ceiling vote, Biden shores up Democrats and McCarthy scrambles for GOP support
AP via Boston Globe – May 31
Hard-fought to the end, the debt ceiling and budget cuts package is heading toward a crucial U.S. House vote as President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy assemble a coalition of centrist Democrats and Republicans to push it to passage over fierce blowback from conservatives and some progressive dissent.
Biden is sending top White House officials to meet early Wednesday at the Capitol to shore up support ahead of voting. McCarthy is working furiously to sell skeptical fellow Republicans, even fending off challenges to his leadership, in the rush to avert a potentially disastrous U.S. default.
Despite deep disappointment from right-flank Republicans that the compromise falls short of the spending cuts they demanded, McCarthy insisted he would have the votes needed to ensure approval.
“We’re going to pass the bill,” McCarthy said as he exited a lengthy Tuesday night meeting at the Capitol.
Quick approval by the House and later in the week the Senate would ensure government checks will continue to go out to Social Security recipients, veterans and others and would prevent financial upheaval at home and abroad. Next Monday is when the Treasury has said the U.S. would run short of money to pay its debts, risking an economically dangerous default.
The package leaves few lawmakers fully satisfied, but Biden and McCarthy are counting on pulling majority support from the political center, a rarity in divided Washington, testing the leadership of the Democratic president and the Republican speaker.
Overall, the 99-page bill restricts spending for the next two years, suspends the debt ceiling into January 2025 and changes policies, including new work requirements for older Americans receiving food aid and greenlighting an Appalachian natural gas line that many Democrats oppose.
For more than two hours late Tuesday as aides wheeled in pizza at the Capitol, McCarthy walked Republicans through the details, fielded questions and encouraged them not to lose sight of the bill’s budget savings.
The speaker faced a sometimes tough crowd. Leaders of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus spent the day lambasting the compromise as falling well short of the spending cuts they demand, and they vowed to try to halt passage by Congress. …
… Ominously, the conservatives warned of potentially trying to oust McCarthy over the compromise.
“There’s going to be a reckoning,” said Rep. Chip Roy of Texas.
Biden was speaking directly to lawmakers, making more than 100 one-on-one calls, the White House said.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the spending restrictions in the package would reduce deficits by $1.5 trillion over the decade, a top goal for the Republicans trying to curb the debt load.
McCarthy told lawmakers that number was higher if the two-year spending caps were extended, which is no guarantee.
But in a surprise that could further erode Republican support, the GOP’s drive to impose work requirements on older Americans receiving food stamps ends up boosting spending by $2.1 billion over the time period. That’s because the final deal exempted veterans and homeless people, expanding the food stamp rolls by 78,000 people monthly, the CBO said.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said it was up to McCarthy to turn out votes from some two-thirds of the Republican majority, a high bar the speaker may not be able to reach. In the 435-member House, 218 votes are needed for passage.
Still, Jeffries said the Democrats would do their part to avoid failure.
“It is my expectation that House Republicans would keep their promise and deliver at least 150 votes as it relates to an agreement that they themselves negotiated,” Jeffries said. “Democrats will make sure that the country does not default.” …
(This is where it becomes important for Jeffries and McCarthy believe that if the GOP ‘Freedom Caucus’ kicks McCarthy out, Dem votes will appear ‘as if out of nowhere’ to put him back in. Maybe the two can be like co-Speakers?)
i am guessing that the dem vote to keep mccarthy speaker is what got him to sign the agreement.
and..my third hypothesis is that McCarthy keeps talking like an ignoramus to convince the R base that he is one of them. i mean, where would the R’s be without “out of control Democrat spending” to kick around?
I’m pretty sure that in the past, Dems only voted for a fellow Dem to be Speaker, most recently Jefferies, and GOP members voted for various fellow GOP members until reluctantly they settled for McCarthy.
So, Dems voting for McCarthy would be kinda different/unusual.
unnatural.
I don’t think pizza would be my choice to eat in Congress in front of cameras.
and pizza without beer?
NY Times –
The House is on track Wednesday afternoon to begin considering a bipartisan plan to suspend the nation’s debt ceiling and limit spending, racing to act before a default that looms within days.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy was toiling to lock down the votes to pass the measure, the product of intense negotiations with President Biden with the economy hanging in the balance, as a stream of hard-right lawmakers and other Republicans raised the political stakes by opposing the plan.
To muster a 218-vote majority to push the bill through the closely divided House, he must cobble together a coalition of Republicans willing to back it and enough Democrats to make up for what was shaping up to be a substantial number of G.O.P. defections. Mr. McCarthy and his lieutenants predicted they would be able to do so and scheduled a final vote for Wednesday night, well after markets have closed.
… The House is scheduled to vote first, around 3:30 p.m., on a measure to set the ground rules for the debate. The vote, normally a formality that passes entirely along party lines, is in question amid a revolt by right-wing Republicans, some of whom broke with their party to try to stop the measure from reaching the floor. Should even a handful of G.O.P. members oppose the rule, Democrats could be called upon to help push it through, an unusual scenario that could harm Mr. McCarthy’s standing.
Republicans have said they will supply most of the votes for the debt-limit plan, and Democrats have indicated they would make up the difference to allow the measure to pass, which would require dozens of them to vote “yes.” “House Republicans need to keep their commitment to produce 150 votes,” said Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader. “And when that happens, Democrats are going to make sure there’s no default.” …
NY Times –
The House (is) heading toward a final vote Wednesday night on a bipartisan plan that would suspend the nation’s debt ceiling for two years, after the package cleared a major procedural hurdle as lawmakers raced to act before a looming June 5 default.
The next step will be a debate on the bill itself, which is expected to begin around 7:15 p.m. The final vote, expected around 8:30 p.m., will come just days ahead of a June 5 deadline, when Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said the United States will run out of cash to pay all of its bills on time.
With Republicans in revolt, it fell to Democrats to help clear the way for the legislation, in a 241-187 vote on the procedural hurdle that reflected a bitter G.O.P. split over the compromise between Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden. …
The vote to begin debate is normally a formality that passes along party lines. On Wednesday, it was a moment of suspense: Republican defections stacked up and Democrats waited to begin casting votes in favor of the measure for several minutes, leaving its fate in doubt. In the end, 29 Republicans opposed the measure while 52 Democrats crossed party lines to support it. …
House passes debt ceiling bill to avoid default, sends deal to Senate
AP – just in
Veering away from a default crisis, the House approved a debt ceiling and budget cuts package late Wednesday, as President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy assembled a bipartisan coalition of centrist Democrats and Republicans against fierce conservative blowback and progressive dissent.
The hard-fought deal pleased few, but lawmakers assessed it was better than the alternative — a devastating economic upheaval if Congress failed to act. Tensions ran high throughout the day as hard-right Republicans refused the deal, while Democrats said “extremist” GOP views were risking a debt default as soon as next week.
With the House vote of 314-117, the bill now heads to the Senate with passage expected by week’s end. …
Dem GOP Total
Yes 165 149 314
No 46 71 117
House Approves a Measure to Suspend the Federal Debt Limit
NY Times – just 1n
With a potential default looming, Democrats helped Speaker Kevin McCarthy pass a compromise bill, voting for it in larger numbers than Republicans and sending it on to the Senate.
In a 314-117 vote, lawmakers agreed to suspend the federal debt ceiling for two years, days before the U.S. was projected to exhaust its borrowing power.
‘Far from ecstatic’: Democrats reluctantly help pass debt limit deal
Boston Globe – May 31
… No one from either side of the aisle in Congress seems to be all that wild about the debt deal. But for members of Biden’s party in particular, there is a general resentment that Democrats had to get it over the line in the House Wednesday night because Republicans lacked the votes and pushed the country to the edge of an economic disaster over what traditionally has been a routine legislative procedure.
The debt limit bill passed the House by a substantial margin, 314-117, but only because more Democrats supported it than Republicans: 165 to 149, with nearly one-third of the GOP caucus bucking McCarthy on a crucial vote.
“Over and over again, Democrats have to be the grownups in the room. And we’re going to do it again. We’re going to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” (Rep Jake) Auchincloss, a Newton Democrat, said Wednesday morning after leaving a meeting with White House officials on the deal. “Governing is about compromise.”
Auchincloss and colleagues in both parties were faced with one of the more stark instances of realpolitik, in which the consequences of inaction — both to the nation’s economy and to their own political parties — far outweighed more ordinary matters of principle.
There was much discontent among House Republicans, with some conservatives vowing to oppose the bill and even suggesting they would try to unseat McCarthy as speaker because they felt he sold them out by not negotiating greater reductions in federal spending.
One of McCarthy’s lead negotiators on the deal, Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, downplayed objections from members of the far right House Freedom Caucus.
“This is a good deal,” McHenry told reporters Wednesday. “But you can never avoid naysayers. . . . What I would say, though, is that House Republicans are in a better situation now, are generically happier now, than in any previous debt ceiling [vote] that I’ve encountered in my 20 years in the House.”
For House Democrats, though, particularly those from deep blue states such as Massachusetts, the deal was a tough one to accept.
The agreement is far less draconian than a debt limit bill that passed the House in April with only Republican support. The version negotiated by Biden and McCarthy would suspend the debt limit until January 2025, in exchange for two years of restrictions on non-defense spending, additional work requirements for some older Americans receiving government food assistance, and giving the go-ahead to a natural gas pipeline in West Virginia.
Democratic leaders charged with selling the deal highlighted a few positives, such as expanding eligibility for food aid to veterans, homeless people, and young adults leaving foster care. And Democrats praised Biden and his team for limiting the damage in the negotiations.
But whatever exasperation some had at the terms of the deal was outweighed by fear of the alternative: what a first-ever government default would do to the economy, and by extension, to Biden’s reelection chances along with their own hopes of retaking the House majority. …
… “There is no perfect negotiation when you are the victims of extortion,” said Representative Katherine Clark of Revere, the second-ranking House Democrat. “It’s hard to take in because it is so cartoon villain-like. But unlike a cartoon, the American people won’t snap back up when you drop that economic anvil on their head.”
Senate Democrats now face the same dilemma.
“I am leaning against this bill, but my vote will depend in part on whether or not that pushes us over the edge to default,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. “I am very frustrated about where we are right now, but that doesn’t mean I want to make things even worse.”
Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, said he was “far from ecstatic” about the deal. “But I recognize that compromise requires both sides to be a bit unhappy,” he said.
For some progressives who vowed to vote against the debt limit bill, “unhappy” was an understatement.
“We need to do multiple things at the same time, prevent default and send the message that holding the US economy hostage is not acceptable,” said Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat. “I think we can send that message as a party today.”
She was joined Wednesday by several leading progressives in the House, as well as Senators Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, in declaring their opposition to the deal. …
McCarthy Emerges From the Debt Limit Fight With Victories, and Some Wounds
NY Times – May 31
The speaker defied expectations and delivered a debt limit agreement that few thought he could manage, but left some of his Republican colleagues feeling betrayed.
When the debt limit fight began, it was widely assumed that Speaker Kevin McCarthy, untested and inexperienced in high-stakes negotiations, would either preside over an economically and politically calamitous government default or lose his hard-won post in a right-wing mutiny after caving to Democrats.
So far, he has managed to avoid both outcomes while claiming some fiscal and policy wins.
With House approval on Wednesday night of the debt limit package he personally negotiated with President Biden, Mr. McCarthy defied expectations and even earned grudging respect from White House officials while defusing the debt limit time bomb he himself planted by insisting on concessions in return for raising the nation’s borrowing limit.
The bar was set low for Mr. McCarthy, known more for politicking and fund-raising than for policymaking, after he struggled mightily to win his post in the first place as House Republicans took control in January.
But in the end, he delivered an agreement that met his goal of cutting spending from current levels. It was not pretty; in fact, it was downright ugly. He managed to do so only with significant help from across the aisle, as Democrats rescued him on a key procedural vote and then provided the support needed for passage. Mr. McCarthy exceeded his goal of winning the support of the majority of his members with 149 backing it, but more Democrats — 165 of them — voted for the bill than members of his own party, an outcome that will fuel Republican criticism that he cut a deal that sold out his own people.
That is not the way powerful speakers of the past have typically accomplished their goals.
But Mr. McCarthy has proved uncommonly willing to endure political pain and even humiliation — a trait that was on ample display during his 15-round fight for the speakership in January — while focusing on extracting a few marquee concessions from Mr. Biden that could allow him to claim victory and avert a default he plainly wanted to avoid, even if many of his members did not.
His allies gave him credit for taking on the White House and Senate Democrats and emerging with a positive result when most Democrats were counting on him to fail. White House officials and congressional Democrats privately predicted that Mr. McCarthy would be unable to corral his extraordinarily fractious troops, and would therefore have no leverage in fiscal talks, allowing them to force through an increase in the debt ceiling with few, if any, concessions to Republicans.
“Underestimated for damn sure,” said Representative Patrick T. McHenry of North Carolina, one of the lead G.O.P. negotiators. “Kevin McCarthy has always been underestimated.” …
US Senate aims for quick passage of debt ceiling bill to avoid default
Reuters – June 1
The U.S. Senate on Thursday was set to take up a bill to lift the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, with just four days left to pass the measure and send it to Democratic President Joe Biden to sign, averting a catastrophic default.
The top Democrat and Republican in chamber vowed to do all they could to speed along the bill negotiated by Biden and Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which would suspend the debt limit until Jan. 1, 2025 in exchange for a cap on spending.
It remained to be seen whether any members of their respective caucuses, particularly hardline Republicans angry the bill did not include deeper spending cuts, would use the Senate’s arcane rules to try to slow down its passage.
The Treasury Department warned it will be unable to pay all its bills on June 5 if Congress fails to act.
The Republican-controlled House passed the bill on Wednesday evening in a 314-117 vote. McCarthy lost the support of dozens of his fellow Republicans.
“Once this bill reaches the Senate, I will move to bring it to the floor as soon as possible,” Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Wednesday.
His counterpart, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, also signaled that he would work for fast passage, saying, “I’ll be proud to support it without delay.”
Biden’s Democrats control the Senate by a thin 51-49 margin. The chamber’s rules require 60 votes to advance most legislation, meaning at least nine Republican votes are needed to pass most bills, including the debt ceiling deal.
The measure faces opposition from the right, with some Republicans angry the spending cuts weren’t deeper, and left, with some Democrats opposed to new work requirements imposed on some antipoverty programs. But most lawmakers acknowledged they could not stomach the prospect of barreling ahead into default.
Schumer and McConnell were working behind the scenes to dissuade opponents from erecting procedural barriers that would delay passage.
Typically on important, contentious bills such as this one, the two Senate leaders find a way to allow just a couple rebelling senators from each party to offer amendments under fast-track procedures, knowing they will lack the votes for passage.
“Unless you want to stay here through the weekend, I think some of our guys are going to need to get their votes” on their amendments, said Senator John Thune, the chamber’s No. 2 Republican.
Any Senate changes to the bill at this stage would mean it would have to go back to the House for final passage, a delay that could make the first-ever U.S. government default a reality.
Republican Senator Rand Paul who regularly seeks such last-minute amendments, told CBS News on Wednesday he will not employ parliamentary procedures to delay action.
But another Republican, Mike Lee, has said he may try to slow it down. On Wednesday he vowed to vote against the bill, but did not reiterate his threat to try to delay it. Chastising House Republican negotiators for agreeing to what he sees as a weak compromise with Democrats, Lee lamented, “With Republicans like these, who needs Democrats?” …
Turns out it was an overwhelming coalition at work…
House Passes Debt Limit Bill in Bipartisan Vote to Avert Default
NY Times – June 01
An overwhelming bipartisan coalition pushed through the compromise struck by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden, even as lawmakers in both parties signaled displeasure with the plan.
The House on Wednesday overwhelmingly passed legislation negotiated by President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend the debt ceiling and set federal spending limits, as a broad bipartisan coalition lined up to cast a critical vote to pull the nation back from the brink of economic catastrophe. …
With both far-right and hard-left lawmakers in revolt over the deal, it fell to a bipartisan coalition powered by Democrats to push the bill over the finish line, throwing their support behind the compromise in an effort to break the fiscal stalemate that had gripped Washington for weeks. On the final vote, 149 Republicans and 165 Democrats backed the measure, while 71 Republicans and 46 Democrats opposed it.
That was a blow to the Republican speaker, whose hard-fought victory on the measure was dampened by the fact that more Democrats ultimately voted for the bill than members of his own party. …
The measure nearly collapsed on its way to the House floor, when hard-right Republicans sought to block its consideration, and in a suspenseful scene, Democrats waited several minutes before swooping in to supply their votes for a procedural measure that allowed the plan to move ahead.