Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Remdesivir VIII

There is a severe Remdesivir shortage On March 2 2020, I warned you that this was going to happen. I did not warn about the opaque and arbitrary Trump administration policy, because the Trump administration is always “worse than you imagine possible even taking into account the fact that it is worse than you imagine […]

The Amateur Epidemiologist

I frequently read a debate about whether, when assessing anti covid 19 performance, one should look at deaths per capita or deaths on days since 1000 deaths. Like everything involving Americans, this has become a pro v contra Trump debate — clearly he wants deaths per capita (and the absolute number of tests performed). The […]

Evidence Based Medicine

Here Trisha Greenhalgh, an actual expert, writes what I have been trying to write. In a Twitter thread. Please click the link. Two key tweets But the principle of waiting for the definitive RCT [randomized controlled Trial] before taking action should not be seen as inviolable, or as always defining good science. On the contrary, […]

Accelerating Vaccine Development

How can deployment of a Sars Cov2 vaccine be speeded up ? One important step is to make a lot of candidate vaccines while testing for effectiveness. Usually, there is testing, approval than producing. Since producing a lot then testing makes no business sense, it is a project for states or charities. Unsurprisingly the Gates […]

Remdesivir 7

The NIAID Trial of Remdesivir has closed early, because they concluded it was not ethical to treat people with placebo given what they consider proof that Remdesivir is effective. This is huge news (I am surprised that the Dow Jones only went up 2% not that I care about the Dow Jones). This is a […]

Does recovering from Covid 19 cause immunity to new infection by Sars Cov2 ?

The WHO warns that it is not proven that we acquire immunity to Sars Cov2. If we don’t we are pretty much doomed. However, I don’t see how people could recover without developing immunity or develope immunity without memory with human immune systems. Here, as often, the burden of proof is placed on the optimistic […]

Remdesivir 6

Bad news from China. There was not a statistically significant benefit for patients with severe Covid 19 in the large Chinese controlled trial of Remdesivir for patients with severe Covid 19. The death rate was actually a tiny bit higher in the treated group. New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit […]

Covid 19 Shutdown Politics

Advocates of quickly ending the shutdowns are in the news. Mostly, because one of them is President. Like most Americans, I think reopening soon would be a mistake (and remember I am in Italy where the shut down is severe compared to any State in the USA). I’m just going to assume that reopening by […]

Two Cheers for the FDA

Only two because the FDA did play an important role in the US Covid 19 testing fiasco. the first cheer is for extreme speed in approving phase 1 trials of candidate vaccines (vaccine in a person within 2 months of publication of the Sars Cov2 sequence) and phase III trials of Remdesivir (results leaking already) […]