I think the imp is my most noticed contribution to the economic discussion. Brad DeLong mentioned the fact that I mentioned him, but called him the inflation expectations imp . Then Paul Krugman mentioned him shortening the name to “the expectations imp”. Alot of time has passed since then during the slow recovery from the […]
and of a 3% inflation target? There is some risk of recession in the USA because the FED insists on driving inflation down to 2%. Oddly back in the naughts when inflation was persistently below the 2% target, there was more discussion of raising the target. Then IMF chief economist discussed it. Paul Krugman advocated […]
The Phillips curve plays a central role in the policy debate (this is partly due to the fact that debaters have finally learned to ignore very highly theoretical and unrealistic DSGE models). Just to review, the Phillips curve should show a negative relationship between unemployment and actual inflation minus expected inflation (it has been defined this way since […]
A soft landing (disinflation without a recession) looks possible. Also the remaining threat is the FED’s sticking with high interest rates, even though inflation is at a very reasonable level (I personally publicly argued that the inflation target should be 4%) and will almost certainly decline even if unemployment remains low. The change can be […]
Since the beginning of the Covid epidemic, the US economy has performed better than European economies and the Eurozone average. This comparison is useful, and not just for boasting rights. Fiscal policy in the USA and in the Eurozone has been dramatically different – The US Federal Government implemented Six very large fiscal stimuli: The […]
I have long thought that there is a (partially effective) treatment for opiate addiction — suboxone. To review suboxone is a mixture of buprenorphine and naloxone. Buprenorphine is a partial opiate receptor agonist (activator) which also blocks other opiates. At least when taken orally, it relieves opiate craving but does not make people high and […]
I have read many articles quoting (brave) Republicans complaining about Donald Trump’s focus on personal, petty and implausible attacks on Kamala Harris. They often assert that if the election were decided on the basis of policy or issues, then Trump would win. Here is the latest discussion I read about that (just the available link […]
Peat bogs capture much more carbon per acre than forests. Currently, peatlands store twice as much carbon as all the world’s forests . One problem is that they are being drained to free up the land. (also but I think less importantly peat and non-rotten sphagnum moss are harvested for gardening). Various sources (most or […]
This is a second hand story about my brother in law’s experience in a Giant (TM) Supermarket checkout line (I guess he should guest post this). He saw someone checking out wearing a Trump Shirt and started a conversation (he’s like that) mentioning that he was voting for Harris. The Trump supporter said that BIden […]
This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. […]