November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not in the headlines  – by New Deal democrat The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends – and the most important one will almost certainly be under-reported. Housing permits issued declined to 1.342 million annualized, the lowest […]

Job growth beginning in Q2 looks to be substantially revised downward  – by New Deal democrat Last week the Philadelphia Fed published a working paper suggesting that in the second quarter of this year only 10,500 jobs were actually added, rather than the 1,047,000 as indicated by the monthly Establishment survey.  Here’s their graph: Here’s what you […]

Commenter Arne asked how we would transition from today’s healthcare system to a Single Payer format. I do not have the answer immediately at hand. I have to look for it. I do want to review what we have learned to date and stated on Angry Bear already. I do have a number of posts […]

Weekly Indicators for December 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident indicators, especially employment, are hanging on by the proverbial skin of their teeth. I don’t think they roll over until gas prices stop declining. In any event, clicking over and […]

AB writer, commenter and Social Security expert, Dale Coberly provides a different take on whether “President Biden Should Direct the Social Security Administration to Stop Penalizing Marriage.” ~~~~~~~~ Nancy Altman wrote the following piece, which appeared in PROGRESS AMERICA, on December 16, 2022 as well as Common Dreams.  I thought it needed a response because […]

The status of the coincident indicators  – by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other datapoints in determining the onset month of a recession: payrolls, industrial production, real income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing, wholesale, […]

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY  – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 […]

In a recent post, Matt Yglesias argues for using fiscal policy – tax increases or benefits cuts – to control inflation, rather than relying on interest rate hikes.  There is certainly an argument to be made here, but his suggestions for reducing consumption seem less than ideal. Yglesias floats the idea of limiting Social Security […]

Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November  – by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Nominal average wages for non-supervisory workers rose a strong 0.7% in […]

Mark Weisbrot of CEPR had an article up in the November LA Times addressing Inflation and the Fed. It appears it may be reprinted in December’s LA Times. “Weisbrot (LA Times): Inflation is Falling Much Faster Than Most People Know; and The Fed’s Response to Inflation May Pose a Bigger Threat than the Inflation Itself.” […]