The last holdout in housing data has turned; ‘recession watch’ for next 12 months remains – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that: “the biggest news was what happened with units under construction. The total declined slightly, as did single family units. But most significantly, for the first time since February 2021, multi-family […]
Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production – by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year. Industrial production as a whole rose 0.3% in September. But August was revised down by -0.2%, so on net it […]
On this day, 18 October 2023, a group representing, at best, 10 percent of House Republicans, 5 percent of the total House, and 5 percent of the total populace came too close to getting Jim Jordan selected Speaker of the House. We came this close to a coup. Albeit partial, a coup. If they had […]
A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and […]
The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing – by New Deal democrat If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve – the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities – has moved towards un-inverting. That is, the […]
For the past few days I have been wondering if Netanyahu has a plan for responding to the Hamas terror killings, or if he’s just temporizing. More and more, it seems like he is just skating in front of the breaking ice. If this is right, it’s one more misdeed for which he and his […]
Roosevelt Institute’s Economist Mike Konczal calls this a remarkable recovery. The increase in the number of people working has helped tamp down inflation and has shown the importance of aiming for full employment. Myself? I do not think this was planned by any authority, including the Fed. One belief I do have is there being […]
Weekly Indicators for October 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The recent improvement in the short leading indicators has made its way through to the coincident indicators. But, given the importance of gas prices, whether the turmoil in the Middle East spreads […]
Real average wages decline, while real aggregate payroll gains remain below peak – by New Deal democrat With the report on September inflation yesterday, we can update two measures of how well average American workers are doing: real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Nominally wages increased 0.2% for the month. With consumer prices up […]
It appears that one important source of the appalling success of the Hamas terrorist invasion of Israel was their use of Drones. Israel relied on a medium tech remote sensing and viewing system with video cameras and remote-controlled machine guns connected to controllers through a cell-phone like system. Hamas used drones to knock out the […]