Open Thread November 5 2023 Drift of Earth’s Pole
“Direct observational evidence supporting this estimate has been lacking. In this study, we show that the model estimate of water redistribution from aquifers to the oceans would result in a drift of Earth’s rotational pole, about 78.48 cm toward 64.16°E.”
Drift of Earth’s Pole Confirms Groundwater Depletion as a Significant Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise 1993–2010 – Seo – 2023 – Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley Online Library
Open Thread October 25 2023 Self-Checkout Lines, Angry Bear
The deficit has doubled — to $2 trillion. This economist says worrying about it is silly.
Boston Globe – Oct 30
… The magnetic poles are quite distant from their geographic counterparts. The North magnetic pole is located to the south in Northern Canada; the geographic South pole is at the center of the Antarctic continent, but the magnetic pole is hundreds of miles away, near the coast. In regions near the magnetic poles, compasses are virtually useless.
Complicating this issue is that these pole positions are not static–for either magnetic or geographic poles. The location of the North geographic pole wanders in a small erratic circle-like path, called the “Chandler wobble.” This motion is less than 6 meters per year on the surface; a worldwide network of very precise global positioning satellite (GPS) receivers is used to determine this wander. …
Scientific American – December 29, 1997
(They also flip, about every 773K years. North becomes south, and so on.)
A new study suggests the last field reversal 773,000 years ago took 22,000 years to occur, which could explain some of the inner workings of our planet’s core.
Scientific American – August 7, 2019
(However, there is also this. Toot alors!)
Earth’s Magnetic North Pole Follows ‘Unusual’ Path, Races Towards Siberia
Newsweek – March 23
It is, of course, of great concern that sea levels are rising considerably due to ice melting, all around the world. This will likely be catastrophic eventually.
“Sea level rise is one of the most significant phenomena associated with the warming climate. Contemporary sea level rise has been monitored extensively by multiple observational techniques. For example, in the period 2005–2015, satellite altimetry showed global mean sea level (GMSL) rising at a rate of 3.5 mm/yr.”
(There’s a disturbing piece in the NY Times today that Biden trails Trump in 5 swing states.
“Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.” He’s behind in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
They have been warning about this for the last year really. They also have a piece that says what to do about it. )
(Here’s the problem, they say…)
Biden Has Particularly Lost Favor With Young, Nonwhite Voters
Whom they say they voted for in 2020
Whom they support now
Nonwhite, under 45
Biden +39
68-29
Biden +6
49-42
Nonwhite, over 45
Biden +47
73-26
Biden +34
63-29
White, under 45
Biden +5
50-45
Trump +8
50-42
White, over 45
Trump +16
57-41
Trump +17
55-39
Link to the graphic above
To summarize, non-white voters in these states support Biden less that in 2020. Those under age 45, significantly less. White voters in these states support Trump, regardless of their age. In 2020, those under 45 supported Biden.
Dems had better deal with this.
@Fred,
LOL! So non-White voters will vote for Trump? Seriously?
Maybe they just stay home?
The polls in question here indicated either support for Biden or support for Trump. Or so the articles were worded. Otherwise, it would be hard to imagine non-white voters in great numbers voting for Trump, I agree.
So, Dems have to presume that they will get the non-White vote regardless?
That’s not unlike what was supposed to happen with Trump vs Hillary Clinton in 2016, which did not pan out as expected/hoped.
@Fred,
“That’s not unlike what was supposed to happen with Trump vs Hillary Clinton in 2016, which did not pan out as expected/hoped.”
In 2016, Hillary won by nearly 3 million votes. The Electoral College appointed Trump against the will of a majority of voters.
It has been pointed out (by Chris Christie & others) that the gang of GOP munchkins opposing Trump stand no chance of stopping him, but if all but one drop out, they might. He wants that to commence with NH. Strategic voting (on the part of Dems) might make it happen.
It’s too complicated to be much of a practical strategy, but ya nevah know. Personally, Haley & DeSantis are only going to be Trump facilitators.
Nikki Haley says her heels were made for running, accuses Ron DeSantis of hiding in his
@Joel,
As you know, the Electoral College could not care less about the ‘popular vote’, alas. 5 swing states can change the result these days, in practically every presidential election. And, aside from the Popular Vote Compact, there is no chance the Electoral College is going to change any time soon.
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
Nevada, having only 6 electoral votes, would not be too important, but should a tie in the Electoral College happen, it could make all the difference. Having the House of Reps pick the President would be a last resort, otherwise. And that might be considered just too ugly. So, Nevada to the rescue?
But, if there’s a tie, which is somewhat unlikely, if Nevada votes for the Dem candidate, it would save us from Trump 2.0.
And, ya’know, if Christie clears the GOP field of all other munchkins, he would be setting himself up as the ideal Trump VP candidate, maybe?
Will Nevada vote for Biden or for Trump?
6 electoral votes can make a difference. But, when the electoral votes are counted (and let’s hope there is no tie, nor the extraordinary difficulties expereince last Jan 6), the result will be known.
Changes in electoral votes will not happen.
In case of an Electoral College tie
There are 538 votes in the Electoral College. A tie is when both leading candidates have the same number of votes. (Duh?) That need not be 269 each, because third-party candidates may have received some votes. That is quite rare.
The GOP gets a victory with just 269 votes, because in all likelihood an actual tie will be decided in their favor in the House. The Dems get a victory with 270 votes because that wouldn’t be a tie.
This all changes if the Dems retake the House in the 2024 election.
But wait…
It looks like Nicki Haley can be President of the Swing States of America.
Nikki Haley ahead in Swing States – The Messenger
US/Biden needs to stop funding the slaughter of children in the Middle East!
Here’s a Plan B: Non-Trump, GOP-Led Tickets in Swing States
Vanity Fair – Mark McKinnon – Oct 30
(Basically, it’s for opposition GOP candidates to run in swing states, so as to draw GOP votes from Trump. Is it possible this will backfire? Yes, I would say so. But, I read that Chris Christie is trying to pull this off in the upcoming NH primary.)
NY Times –
I haven’t read much on what Hamas’ military objectives might be in this war. They achieved tremendous surprise but then did not reenforce plus wasted a good deal of time and effort attacking targets that essentially had zero military value. Now they seem to be in a posture of trying to sell their lives as dearly as possible, but not much else. The best guess I have is it is a gruesomely bloody diversionary tactic in a wider conflict. For example, if this is not part of a wider war and apart from inflicting more casualties on the IDF, surrendering has few apparent downsides for them: yes they would be out of the conflict, but the coming weeks will see huge numbers of them out of the conflict anyway. The major immediate complaints of non-combatant suffering and looming hypothetical threat of mass expulsion end quickly. What is the objective of continuing the battle?
War has two dimension: materiel, and moral.
The indiscriminate use of US weapons, disregard for non combatant deaths, and destruction of property with no tactical or operational value is being witnessed by most of the world not buying Biden and Blinken pap.
Right to defend does not demand crimes against humanity.
Hamas is playing to the rest of the world.
Is “playing to the rest of the world” a morally justified choice now? At this point, the rest of the world isn’t learning anything, Hamas went on the offensive in a manner significantly directed against non-combatants and now execute a defensive strategy quite obviously designed around interposing non-combatants between their forces and the IDF. Consider the recent attack on the refugee camp. The objections don’t seem to be that Hamas forces don’t operate out of these camps, but that the number of civilians was so high that Israel ought to consent to respecting human shield tactics in such cases. A fair question I think is, given the atrocities of October 7, should Hamas conduct its operations on the basis that human shields will be a lower deterrent than ever before? Yes if Hamas is concerned with non-combatant suffering or no if that suffering is one of the key objectives.
It is terrorist versus terrorist, US is funding the one side.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/us/politics/obama-israel-palestine.html
November 4, 2023
Obama Urges Americans to Take in ‘Whole Truth’ of Israel-Gaza War
The former president said everyone was “complicit to some degree” in the current bloodshed and acknowledged the points of view on both sides of the conflict.
By Lisa Lerer
Barack Obama offered a complex analysis of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, telling thousands of former aides that they were all “complicit to some degree” in the current bloodshed.
“I look at this, and I think back, ‘What could I have done during my presidency to move this forward, as hard as I tried?’” he said in an interview conducted by his former staffers for their podcast, Pod Save America. “But there’s a part of me that’s still saying, ‘Well, was there something else I could have done?’”
Mr. Obama entered the White House convinced he could be the president who would resolve the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. He left office after years of friction and mistrust with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who was frustrated by the president’s masterminding of the Iran nuclear deal and by his demands that Israel suspend new settlements.
In his comments on Friday, delivered at a gathering of his former staff in Chicago, Mr. Obama acknowledged the strong emotions the war had raised, saying that “this is century-old stuff that’s coming to the fore.” He blamed social media for amplifying the divisions and reducing a thorny international dispute to what he viewed as sloganeering.
Yet he urged his former aides to “take in the whole truth,” seemingly attempting to strike a balance between the killings on both sides.
“What Hamas did was horrific, and there’s no justification for it,” Mr. Obama said. “And what is also true is that the occupation and what’s happening to Palestinians is unbearable.” …
35 Years After Addressing Congress, James Hansen Has More Climate Warnings
NY Times – Nov 2
The former NASA scientist James Hansen says in a new paper that global temperatures will pass a major milestone this decade, faster than other estimates predict.
(The link above seems to be useless.)
(Use this one instead.)
Global warming in the pipeline
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/climate/james-hansen-global-warming-report.html
November 2, 2023
Thirty-five Years After Addressing Congress, James Hansen Has More Climate Warnings
The former NASA scientist James Hansen says in a new paper that global temperatures will pass a major milestone this decade, faster than other estimates predict.
By Delger Erdenesanaa
Climate crisis: carbon emissions budget is now tiny, scientists say –The carbon budget remaining to limit the climate crisis to 1.5C of global heating is now “tiny”, according to an analysis, sending a “dire” message about the adequacy of climate action. The carbon budget is the maximum amount of carbon emissions that can be released while restricting global temperature rise to the limits of the Paris agreement. The new figure is half the size of the budget estimated in 2020 and would be exhausted in six years at current levels of emissions. Temperature records have been obliterated in 2023, with extreme weather supercharged by global heating hitting lives and livelihoods across the world. At the imminent UN Cop28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates there are likely to be disputes over calls for a phaseout of fossil fuels. The analysis found the carbon budget remaining for a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5C is about 250bn tonnes. Global emissions are expected to reach a record high this year of about 40bn tonnes. To retain the 50% chance of a 1.5C limit, emissions would have to plunge to net zero by 2034, far faster than even the most radical scenarios.
(NB: this means that even if all countries cut emissions by 50% today, we only have 12.5 years before the Paris accords limit is exceeded)
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889
November 2, 2023
Global warming in the pipeline
By James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S Nazarenko, Isabelle Sangha, Pushker Kharecha, James C Zachos, Karina von Schuckmann, Norman G Loeb, Matthew B Osman, et al.
Abstract
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00410c.html
December, 2008
Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?
By James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Robert Berner, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Mark Pagani, Maureen Raymo, Dana L. Royer and James C. Zachos
Abstract
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~ 3°C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, * is ~ 6°C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, the planet being nearly ice-free until CO2 fell to 450 ± 100 ppm; barring prompt policy changes, that critical level will be passed, in the opposite direction, within decades. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm ** to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. *** An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects. ****
* Surface reflectivity of sun’s radiation
** Currently ~ 420 ppm: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
*** Net change in radiant emittance or irradiance
**** https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_ha00410c.pdf