by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 6 – 10 and a comment on COVID I’m still traveling, so light posting for a couple days more. In fact, I neglected to post a link to my Weekly Indicators on Saturday. A bit tardy, here it is. Conditions across all time frames do not look so good, […]

Consumer prices rise 1% in May alone; owners’ equivalent rent at 30 year high; expect the Fed to keep stomping on the brakes Today is a travel day for me, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. People who were hoping inflation would abate did not get the news they wanted from the May CPI. Consumer […]

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend, and other economic notes for the week First, a note on other economic news from earlier this week.  The housing market is getting absolutely crushed by 10 year+ high mortgage rates. Mortgage applications fell to levels not seen since 2017 (except for a few weeks during the […]

Coronavirus variant update: and on to the BA.4/5 wave Last week the CDC update showed variant “Ba.1.1.526” increasing quickly to 6.6% of all cases. Although they did not note it, I wrote that this was almost certainly Ba.4/5; they simply had not made the change yet. Well, this week they did. This morning’s “nowcast” update […]

Coronavirus dashboard for June 6: transitioning ever so gradually into a less fatal endemic condition The economic calendar is very light this week, with no significant news until Thursday, so let’s take this opportunity to update the situation with COVID-19. First, as of one week ago subvariant BA.2.12.1 continues to increase very slowly its share […]

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 30 – June 3 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The slow drip, drip, drip of decelerating or declining data is continuing, as among other things, the YoY increase in withholding tax payments from workers has declined significantly in the past month. […]

May jobs report: Like the past few months, I was most interested in three main issues: 1. Is the pace of job growth decelerating?  (Yes, but it is still very strong by historical standards) 2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? (It is still strong, but decelerated again slightly) 3. Are the leading indicators […]

April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings Late last year, I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs or perhaps other games as well such as 케이카지노. Employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves […]

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. Manufacturing and production equipment such as special tooling, patterns, molds, […]

House prices: signs and portents of an approaching peak? House price increases were still going strong through March, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes. The Case Shiller national index rose 2.1% for the month and 20.5% YoY, the biggest YoY% gain ever, while the FHFA purchase-only index […]