Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated by New Deal democrat First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is. But the big culprits were […]
Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims [Programming note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later]. Initial jobless claims declined -5,000 to 180,000, but above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose 2,250 to 179,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set […]
Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave The CDC updated its variant proportions data yesterday. BA.2.12.1 cases grew from 19% to 29% of all US cases: and from 45% to 60% in NY and NJ. At the other end of the spectrum, BA.2.12.1 was only 9% of cases in the Pacific Northwest and […]
Prices soar, sales drop; oh by the way, sales lead prices New home sales declined -8.6% in March, which isn’t as sharp as it seems since declines of this magnitude happen 2-3x/year. The series is also heavily revised, so no new month’s number should be given too much weight. On the other hand, new home […]
Lessons for the present from the Postwar Boom One of the things I harp on from time to time is that from 1932 to 1956 there was never a yield curve inversion, and yet recessions certainly did happen! Too many modern models get hung up on Fed intervention. But what happens when the Fed doesn’t […]
Mortgage rates continue to rise; once the backlog in construction is cleared, this will likely kill housing No important economic news today (April 22), but an important negative trend in interest rates is continuing. Mortgage rates are now at 12 year highs. The weekly data from Freddy Mac’s weekly survey shows rates increased to 5.11% […]
Jobless claims: more 50+ year lows Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 184,000, another 50+ year low. The 4 week average rose from 4,500 to 177,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set two weeks ago. Continuing claims declined -58,000 this week to 1,417,000, a new 50 year low (but still well above their […]
Coronavirus dashboard for April 20: there’s a new subvariant in town Let me start with the current overview. As of today, Nationally cases are now rising sharply, up to 41,500, an increase of 25% in the past week: Hospitalizations are generally flat at slightly over 10,000, but new admissions have risen steadily, by 8% over […]
Housing starts show continued strength in March, while single family permits indicate softness ahead The continued strength in total housing permits and starts shown in this morning’s report for March was surprising; but the series with the most signal and least noise, single family permits, betrayed weakness. While typically permits, especially single family permits, lead […]
The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade No economic news of note today; but tomorrow we will see housing permits and starts for March, and on Wednesday existing home sales. So let’s take an important look at housing. The recent increase in mortgage […]