New home sales: is housing developing a price “choke collar”? So, new single family home sales for May were reported light this morning: Because this series is very volatile and heavily revised, as always take this with a grain of salt. To smooth out some of the volatility, I pay more attention to the three […]
A tale of two timeframes No data today Monday, so while we are waiting for new home sales tomorrow, let me step back a little and give you an updated overview of my thinking. It boils down to: the short term forecast — over the next 4 to 8 months — looks flat at best, […]
Trucking suggests transport slowing, but has not rolled over I have been paying particular attention to the monthly report of the American Trucking Association, to compare its performance with rail, which has been sagging since the beginning of this year. A few other people are relying on the Cass Freight Index, but since that includes […]
May real retail sales positive, but industrial production remains in a shallow recession Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present, near term forecast, and longer term forecast for the economy. This morning retail sales for May were reported up +0.5%, and […]
Empire State Manufacturing: OUCH! I’m on vacation this week, so fair warning that there is probably going to be light posting! The only economic news of note today was the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Only one district, only one survey, in a noisy series, but just the same, the overall index fell to -8.6 and […]
Initial jobless claims for week ending June 10 – no concern yet I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: 1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low. 2. If the YoY% change in […]
Initial jobless claims for week ending June 10 – no concern yet I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: 1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low. 2. If the YoY% change in […]
May real wages grow, but real aggregate payrolls on the verge of a red flag warning The consumer price index rose +0.1% in May and declined YoY to 1.8%. Again the main reason was gas prices, which declined in during the month. Below is overall CPI (blue) vs. CPI less energy (red) for the past […]
Scenes from the May employment report: expect more lackluster reports, and layoffs in manufacturing Three months ago when the poor February jobs report came out, I was just about the only commentator who saw it as a harbinger rather than an outlier. On Friday the naysayers got silenced.Let’s see how the more leading aspects of the employment […]
For party voting preference, which is more important, age or education? Looks like we have an answer For all the slicing and dicing that has been done in voting metrics for 2016 and 2018, one quandary has stood out. We know that higher educational attainment has strongly correlated with voting for Democrats, and we also […]