Empire State Manufacturing: OUCH!
I’m on vacation this week, so fair warning that there is probably going to be light posting!
The only economic news of note today was the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Only one district, only one survey, in a noisy series, but just the same, the overall index fell to -8.6 and the new orders component fell to -12:
This brings the average of all five regional Fed Indexes down to +1. If the Philly Index simply declines to +5 or less later this week, then the average will turn negative.
Even that would not be a disaster. Note that in 2015-16 when the Empire State Index was this low or lower, the overall economy remained positive. But unless housing turns around quickly, we have a problem.