May jobs report: Like the past few months, I was most interested in three main issues: 1. Is the pace of job growth decelerating?  (Yes, but it is still very strong by historical standards) 2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? (It is still strong, but decelerated again slightly) 3. Are the leading indicators […]

April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings Late last year, I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs or perhaps other games as well such as 케이카지노. Employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves […]

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. Manufacturing and production equipment such as special tooling, patterns, molds, […]

House prices: signs and portents of an approaching peak? House price increases were still going strong through March, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes. The Case Shiller national index rose 2.1% for the month and 20.5% YoY, the biggest YoY% gain ever, while the FHFA purchase-only index […]

Memorial Day 2022 Memorial Day is that most somber of national observances, in which we remember all those, of whatever race, creed, color, or nationality, who gave their lives so that government of the People, by the People, and for the People shall not perish from the Earth. In past years I have included photographs of […]

Real income and – especially – spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended by NewDealdemocrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1.4%. In more good news, the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose only 0.2%, […]

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year  Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These have been the sharpest monthly declines since 2005: Real money supply is a long leading indicator, as shown in the below graph of […]

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. Meanwhile, the 4-week average rose by another 7,250 to 206,750, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set seven weeks ago.  Continuing claims also rose from […]

New home sales get walloped New single family home sales got walloped in April, declining -16.6% for the month compared with March, and down -26.9% from one year ago. Measured from their most recent peak last December, they are off -29.6%, and measured from their pandemic peak of August 2020, they are down a whopping […]

Inflation reversals as unique markers of Boom and Bust cycles vs. Fed interventions As I’ve already mentioned a couple of times, I am seeing posts from the usual DOOOMERS warning that a recession is imminent, if we’re not already in one. Typically – again, as per usual – they cite data that they never bothered […]