Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Industrial production: negative number, important negative revisions

 – by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession of China to the world trading system in 1999 an the wholesale flight […]

Eliminating taxes on Social Security is a bad idea

Normally, a sentence that begins “Donald Trump says . . . “ is not worth finishing, and that’s how a recent blog post over at jabberwocking.com begins. But finish it I did, and it turns out that DJT says he wants to eliminate all federal income taxes on Social Security. Currently, if SS is your […]

Five Questions with David Hogg

by Joyce Vance Civil Discourse  David Hogg survived the tragic 2018 mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. He went on to become one of a generation of student activists who had enough and decided to fight for gun reform instead of just waiting for the next shooting. Hogg was one […]

Real retail sales the highest so far this year, but still negative YoY

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and […]

Bernie is wrong on Social Security

I like Bernie Sanders for many reasons, but this isn’t one of them: “As a result of those challenges, Sanders wants to see more Democrats vocally get behind measures like . . . removing the cap on Social Security taxation so the wealthy pay a full share of their income into the program.” This is […]

Income Uncertainty and ACA marketplace Application

by Andrew Sprung xpostfactoid Brian Blase, a conservative healthcare scholar at the Paragon Institute, is out with an analysis of 2024 ACA marketplace enrollment (summarized in this WSJ op-ed) claiming that millions of enrollees have mis-estimated their incomes to claim benefits to which they are “not entitled.” Here are the core claims: In nine states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, […]

US Workers Rally After a String of Heat-Related Deaths

Workers across the US rally after string of heat-related deaths. Grist This story was originally published by Grist. Ayurella Horn-Muller For the last two years, Cecilia Ortiz has worked as a passenger service agent at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. She typically has to walk 10 to 15 miles a day, up and down ramps, […]

Jobless claims still a positive, even with some lingering Hurricane Beryl after-effects in Texas

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I pointed out that the YoY increases in initial and continuing jobless claims appeared to be all about Texas in the wake of Beryl. This week there was good news even with some continued hurricane Beryl effects in Texas. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 227,000 for the week, […]