Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Tariffs and Trade

by Joseph Joyce Capital Ebbs and Flows The Republican nomination of Donald Trump as its nominee for President ensures that international trade will be a major issue in the campaign. Trump views trade as a zero-sum game and the existence of U.S. trade deficits as proof that other nations have taken advantage of U.S. openness […]

The Week Ahead: Conventions Past

by Joyce Vance Civil Discourse Twenty twenty-four finds the Democrats nominating a Black woman to run for president. Said another way, a woman will be nominated by a major party as its candidate to be the president of the United States. The first time in our history in either instance. This will all take place […]

The totally predictable economics of climate change

Back when we were grad students at UNC-Chapel Hill from 1977-82, my wife and I made several trips to the Outer Banks. One reason was to visit her uncle and his family, who lived in Buxton, just north of Hatteras lighthouse. What struck me then was how many people lived in homes on the coast […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators August 12-16 2024

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the bond market anticipating Fed rate cuts ahead, it has already lowered mortgage rates somewhat on its own. That has led to a jump in new applications, and to an even bigger spike in refinancing. As usual, clicking over and reading […]

Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q2 2024

Also depicted by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk – MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q2 2024” WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 15, 2024) – The mortgage delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.97 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2024, according […]

What a Surprise . . . Unpaid Invoices in Arizona

People flock to trump venues where he stiffs the municipalities and leaves unpaid invoices. And this is ok for his followers? Unpaid invoices could keep Trump rallies at smaller Arizona venues By Camaron Stevenson Copper Courier After the Harris-Walz presidential campaign’s stadium-filled rally in Glendale, Arizona, last week, Trump supporters in the state may wonder when they’ll […]

Collection of Articles Accumulated Over the Last Few Days

GOP’s attack on Americans’ retirement savings just went to the next disgusting level, Opinion, Alternet. “To protect older Americans’ life savings, President Biden pledged in October to crack down on financial advisers who recommend investments just because they pay higher commissions. Then the insurance industry got to work.” Explained: The Controversy Over Tim Walz’s Military Service, […]

But for Beryl, housing construction would have warranted hoisting a yellow caution flag for recession

 – by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a yellow recession caution flag in this important leading sector. While the hurricane had no significant effect on permits, it likely did have an effect on starts and […]

Have I been wrong about 3D printed houses?

by Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! The economist John Maynard Keynes purportedly said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” I am considering changing my mind about 3D printed houses. I wrote eight years ago: “I am not a total skeptic about 3D-printed houses. I think there is a place for them—on the […]

Value of a Statistical duck

by David Zetland The one-handed economist Benefit-cost accounting (BCA) began with a simple comparison of monetary benefits and costs, e.g., should I invest $100 in exchange for a return of $10 per year. Then people wanted to compare more abstract values, such as the benefit of a vacation or sandwich or education against the costs […]