…to over 20% YoY; and gas prices YoY are still up at levels that in the past have been associated with economic slowdowns or recessions: As I have been forecasting…

…range for the last 40 years. Quite simply the yield curve is not forecasting any imminent economic downturn. But what about the Fed raising rates. Below are two graphs showing…

…university hiring committee. One simple point is that the official methodology asserts that out of sample forecasting performance is not relevant to the assessment of a time series model (this…

…order to avoid the most common pitfall in any forecasting, which is that of projecting the current trend forward. This morning PPI for February was reported. Frequently – but not…

…measure is still below its peak of one year ago. So real residential investment is still a negative for forecasting purposes. In addition to the above two long leading components…

…allows us to close the planted gaps rather quickly. This again is why I am forecasting ag commodities to moderate this year, albeit high and above the norms, but stabilize….

…their motor vehicles. Indeed, according to Prof. Edward Leamer‘s forecasting model, ever since the end of World War 2 almost all American recessions have been preceded by, first of all,…

…Hapag-Lloyd Container is forecasting this based on future bookings. Spot rates in $ per FEU. Blue = Shanghai to LA, green = to Rotterdam, orange = to NY, yellow =…

Will tomorrow’s real retail sales report forecast a recession, or just a continued slowdown? No economic data today (May 16) of significance; but tomorrow one of my favorite economic indicators,…

…coming to a close shortly. This was a big week, and in the next few weeks leading up to Juneteenth holiday will be even more instrumental in forecasting grain futures…