Wildly Off Forecasts? The macroeconomic forecasting business has become quite unhinged in the current situation, with existing models seeming to have their wheels coming off as old relationships simply do…

…yesterday’s report on initial and continuing claims, which have been giving the most up-to-date  snapshot of the continuing  economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. This week continued the trend…

…are expected to improve substantially in Q3, meaning that yet another forecasting element for the economy one year from now has stopped being a negative. Lots of conditions are in…

…not point – no anomaly which could not be fit with old Keynesian models, no gain in forecasting performance or plausible reliability of policy evaluation. I think that when the…

…the US that had violated it by not fully withdrawing economic sanctions against Iran, a decision made during the Obama administration that negotiated the deal, while Iran was not in…

…provide is not just forecasting the next few months, but into the next year as well. So in the second half of last year I was writing about how all…

…before a fall,. While I am going to stay out of forecasting anything in these markets, given how many important market manipulators are playing in them, regarding whom I have…

…who were forecasting that the removal of US troops would bring about its collapse quickly.  But even those people gave it several months or at least a few weeks.  Heck,…

…see where Bill McBride posted a graph of spending on gas as a percent of total consumer spending, which brought to mind one of my “alternative” methods for forecasting (at…

…we are at or have just passed the peak of the Delta wave, now is a good time for a quick review of my forecasting of the Delta wave, which…