…still ample. The stock market, by contrast, is a “short leading indicator,” forecasting only a few months ahead. Why should I expect a short leading indicator to lead the long…

…changed. In the models, agents switch based on the past performance of the two forecasting rules. Hands are waved so that all don’t switch at the same time and people…

Interest rates and jobs: a variation on the model Friday is nonfarm payrolls day, so in the absence more noteworthy economic news, let me follow up on Monday’s post in…

A thought for Sunday: The Abyss always looks back, Presidential polling edition A point I have made about economic forecasting a number of times is that one can be an…

…Fed funds rate has a good track record of forecasting the YoY% change in jobs 12-24 months out, let’s add that (green) into the mix: I don’t think we’ll see…

…entirely agree with his one minute explanation of the importance of the yield curve for macroeconomic forecasting. the ever-fascinating yield curve, which tracks the difference between long-term and short-term treasury…

…1993 book on forecasting: corporate bond yields, housing permits, real M2, and corporate profits deflated by unit labor costs. These four historically were bundled into the proprietary “US Long Leading…

…economic adviser,” while the much more competent Hassett has been largely invisible. Before getting into more recent events, let me note that the Economic Report of the President Hassett and…

…In The Economic Future Isn’t What It Used to Be (Wonkish) Krugman notes that forecasts of potential output of the US and the EU are now far below what they…

…time to admit that I talked about forecasting the next poll. I look at the next (raw) poll in the sample ldraw. The dependent variable next raw uncorrected poll Number…