…That is why the fundamentals-based economic models all forecast a very close election that year. It increasingly looks like Trump will face a similar dynamic, at least in the first…

…conditions necessary for an economic downturn hadn’t quite happened yet. Needless to say, it went nowhere. To the contrary, my big recollection is that my posts that got the most…

…a mechanical forecasting system is that it can be completely dissonant with what your emotions are telling you. Right now the discipline of my long/short leading/coincident indicator system is completely…

…specifically suggests a completely effective Congressional solution for gerrymandering. Finally, I’ve gone back and re-read my 2015-16 articles on forecasting the presidential election, so that I can update those for…

…metrics, but is less than 20 years old, so only covers one full business cycle, so is of limited forecasting use. To reiterate, here is the order in which the…

…business cycle, so is of limited forecasting use. The order in which the JOLTS series peaked during the 2000s expansion was as follows: Hires peaked first, from December 2004 through…

…rebounding to the top, or above, the existing fair value band. On Wall Street the consensus still is forecasting a significant rebound in 2020 earnings. But if the Coronavirus does…

…tried and true series of long and short leading indicators, you ca-“ Deity: “OH YEAH??? TRY FORECASTING THE GIANT SCREAMING METEOR OF DEATH!!!!!” G.S.M.O.D.: [BOOM! Forecaster [poking head through rubble]:…

…the Eastern Economic Association meetings. The day before, Leap Day, Bernie Sanders had a 15,000 person rally on the Boston Common, with local media accurately forecasting he would defeat local…

…Prof. Robert S. Erickson of Columbia University and Prof. Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austria, entitled “Forecasting the Presidential Vote with leading economic indicators and the polls”…