…in that post by me with Mauro Gallegati and Antonio Palestrini, “The Period of Financial Distress in Speculative Markets: Interacting Heterogeneous Agents and Financial Constraints,” was finally published in Macroeconomic…

…key principal of standard time series economics is that time series models are evaluated based on their ability to forecast accurately out of sample. Contradictory assumptions about the same time…

…while after the election last year, there was a debate about whether the “economic anxiety” in the (white) working class was the most important factor vs. was it simply a…

…with a reaffirmation of the foundation based on Marxism-Leninism. Yes, he used that term. While there all kinds of issues about the future path of economic, social, political, environmental, and…

…having a butterfly effect (sensitive dependence on initial conditions, a positive Lyapunov exponent, to be more technically precise). But estimated models based on these do not do well forecasting, not…

…prices aren’t like asset prices. They don’t jump. They change slowly like GDP. And there isn’t anything more political-ideological than forecasting inflation. Asset prices jump. Accountants jump to shift income…

Two thoughts on the Virginia election: it’s the net strong disapproval,stupid! But is the primary driver education or age? It’s a slow week for economic news, but we sure had…

…in a serious bubble that was going to crash big time. The matter of forecasting how bad it would get with the Great Recession became a matter of who had…

…recession forecasting model which turns on consumers running out of options to to continue increasing purchases (i.e., no interest rate financing, no wage real wage increases, and no increasing assets…

End Of The Obama-Yellen Economy For the past year the US has been essentially operating on an Obama-Yellen economy, at least as far as the big macroeconomic policies have been…