…graph. I look at data for intervals starting from the second half of 1992 through the second half of 2012 (the most recent available). The labels refer to the start…

…more sweeping assumptions than others. An unfortunate symbiosis has arisen in economics between statistical methods that excessively rule out diversity and statistical questions that center on average (non-diverse) effects. This…

…brow backward looking forecasting equation relates the change in inflation to the output gap. It completely failed to fit the data. There are two candidate explanations for this surprising behavior…

One economic variable that I track is the percentage of capital income used for consumption. It is not an exact number but an estimate in order to see trends over…

…high incomes. 3) Unfortunately, it might just be me first listen to me first nowwwww. If one’s expertise is in long term budget forecasting, the frank statement that one knows…

by Joseph Joyce (re-posted from Capital Ebbs and Flows) International Debt and Financial Crises The latest issue of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook has a chapter on global imbalances that…

…facts, and the economic effects of these statistics (i.e., Keynesian economics), refuses to do that. And in any event probably couldn’t do it coherently, to save his live. Or to…

…an economic boom period, the early 90s were not. The late 60s became dominated by hippies and anti-war movement that split the Dems, while the early 60s was about New…

…doing other kinds of economics have done less theory and become more empirical, macroeconomics has gone in the opposite direction, adopting wholesale a methodology that prioritised the internal theoretical consistency…

…everyone who has ever had any role in negotiating wages were considered irrelevant. The argument went on that people won’t make forecasting mistakes with the same sign forever, so the…