…per year per year. I was interested in the extent to which deviations from quadratic trends estimated with pre 1990 data might be useful when forecasting. I don’t have any…

Lifted from Robert Waldmann’s Stochastic Thoughts: Brad DeLong Marks His Beliefs about “The Return of Depression Economics” to Market I am overwhelmed by admiration for Brad DeLong (happens a lot)…

…a coordinated decade growth target for the countries in the newly formed Organization for Economic Coordination and Development was controversial. The Secretary-General of the OECD, Thorkil Kristensen, the British, Canadian…

I have been in the workshop building a model for inflation and other things. It builds upon the model for forecasting the profit rate cycle. And also upon the model…

…is that modern DSGE macroeconomic models fit a small number of data points with a huge number of parameters. As a result, the final model used for forecasting and policy…

…estimate of the non wage inflatin accelerting rate of unemployment (nawru). It provides almost exactly zero evidence that the estimated NAWRU is useful when forecasting the acceleration of the rate…

…of the non wage inflatin accelerting rate of unemployment (nawru). It provides almost exactly zero evidence that the estimated NAWRU is useful when forecasting the acceleration of the rate of…

…Trump Transition Team ordering government economists to cook up rosy economic forecasts. With his far reaching economic “it will be great” promises during the election, delusional Trump has laid out…

…recession forecasting model which turns on consumers running out of options to to continue increasing purchases (i.e., no interest rate financing, no wage real wage increases, and no increasing assets…

Trump: the endgame There was some economic news last week which is important for the long term, and I’ll try to post about it later today or tomorrow, but in…