…I’ve been forecasting for around midyear 2019 manifest itself in the employment arena? One of my mantras is that “hiring leads firing.” In other words, companies slow or stop their…

…cold provide them with a forecast. The lion explained that he fit but didn’t forecast – that treating an OLS regression as a forecasting model might appeal to the foolish…

…easy. With the exception of a hurricane-induced whipsaw in September and October, for the last year the L.E.I. [Index of Leading Economic Indicators] has improved by about .4% a month….

…wrote that “because the YoY change in the Fed funds rate also does a very good job forecasting the *rate* of YoY change in payrolls 12 to 24 months out,…

…does a good job forecasting the trend in temporary jobs in the monthly employment report. And here, the news is becoming slightly, but more and more, negative. In the four…

by New Deal democrat The economy in 2019: a look at the “big picture” Although I have a bunch of nerdy forecasting models, I view my primary mission as trying…

…from which we get the headline jobs number. For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression…

…yield curve is forecasting recession to happen sometime in 2020. 2. The few economic models that don’t rely upon the yield curve suggest a recession *could* happen later this year….

…earlier this week at Seeking Alpha, I wrote that corporate profits are of higher forecasting importance because of the contradiction in the signals being sent by the bond market vs….

…about crucial aspects of this, involving what it really is and how it is supposed to work, with some forecasting that it may be a total bust because of internal…