…He was part of the UN’s IPCC forecasting team, being one of those advocating a lower end projection compared to others. But he saw it happening, and he was in…

…While that doesn’t negative the message of the long or short leading indicators in the past, it certainly can change their forecasting meaning going forward. In other words, even if…

Continued good news for consumers on gas prices There’ll be lots of economic news starting tomorrow, but for today let’s pause and take a look at the energy situation. Here’s…

…expand. So forecasting whether the period ahead will feature better or worse conditions for job-holding and income for average workers is a social good in my book. Last Friday in…

…in not straightforwardly forecasting a recession in the next 6-12 months. The yield curve from 1 through 10 years out is completely inverted, and the 10 year is yielding less…

…I am forecasting inflation to stay out well into next year. Why is this happening? In 2021 Russia cut off all exports to us. China followed in suit. Domestically we…

…global production, relatively unchanged economics for the US. There is also forecast lower consumption worldwide; food inflation seems to be curbing consumption perhaps. Soybeans – downgraded on a net/net by…

…which can be used for medium term forecasting to calculate a level of unemployment consistent with a normal ratio of vacancies to unemployment *assuming* that future observations are on or…

…month, making a new +6.9% all time high YoY (exactly as I started forecasting a full year ago) compared with the FHFA purchase only house price index (black, /2 for scale):…

…is attempting to decide how elections should be. Should state legislatures have the ultimate and final say? Business and Economics Why Are Market Rents Decelerating? It’s Probably Not Because Of…