…important YoY basis for forecasting, initial claims were up 9.5%, the four week average up 7.0%, and continued claims up 28.3%: Initial claims remain below the 10% increase YoY level…

…months, that suggests an unemployment rate declining to about 3.6% in a few months (i.e., 3.5%*1.035=3.6%) from a more elevated 3.8%-4.0% level: In short, claims are forecasting continued economic expansion….

…a more elevated 3.8%-4.0% level: In short, claims are forecasting continued economic expansion.” This has not changed Republicans thoughts on Biden as revealed in their deliberate attempts to discredit Biden….

…values for the past 2 years.  For forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes are what is most important, and there, initial claims were up only 1.9%, and the four week average…

…construction has been the most important one, because they represent the actual economic activity of construction. With the exception of 2001, which was an investment-led downturn, they also have always…

…week delay, continuing claims declined -1,000 to 1.865 million: No Christmas layoffs to speak of this year! On the more important for forecasting purposes YoY basis, initial claims are down…

…since the end of last March. For purposes of forecasting the effect on the “Sahm rule” measure of the unemployment rate, the entire month of December averaged 210,400 claims, 200…

…post-pandemic lows of one year ago, and continuing claims are the lowest since the end of October: As usual, for forecasting purposes the YoY change is more important. YoY weekly…

…the unemployment rate by several months, for purposes of forecasting the effect on the “Sahm rule” measure of the unemployment rate, the first two weeks of January have averaged a…

…lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week average is up 5.4%. Continuing…