…when we look at the YoY% changes, those most important for forecasting purposes. YoY initial claims are nevertheless *down* -10.2%, and the four week average down -6.7%. Both of these…

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have very limited value in economic forecasting, since they are the trade of an existing product rather than indicating growth or contraction…

…below its equipoise point of 50, that would mean that both leading sectors of the goods producing economy are forecasting further weakness ahead.” Last month the weighted average of the…

…that YoY range, higher by 4.6%: Since the YoY metrics are most important for forecasting purposes, this continues to be a positive sign for the economy. Finally, although I’ve cast…

…needed to expand the graph below from its usual 2 year time period in order to show that: On the YoY basis that is more important for forecasting purposes, initial…

…morning the ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported. Since I have started paying more attention to this as part of an economically weighted short term forecasting tool along with…

…the leading data from the Establishment Survey of the jobs report is still forecasting economic expansion in the next few months. The Bonddad Blog Economy Still Barely in Expansion. Angry…

…hypothesis for the increase we have been seeing this summer will take place over the next 4-5 weeks. But for now, importantly, initial jobless claims are not forecasting a recession…

…The YoY% change removes the effects of unresolved seasonality and is the best metric to use for forecasting. Measured this way, initial claims were down -3.7%, and the four-week average…

…declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are the YoY% changes. In that…