…more important for forecasting purposes. Initial claims are down -7.4%, the four-week average is up a mere 1.1%, and continuing claims are up 8.6%. In the case of the last,…

…my forecasting models uses such a shock as a recession warning indicator. In any event, there is no such shock indicated at the moment. Also as indicated above, the NBER…

…year high in the unemployment rate – very much NOT what initial claims have been forecasting.  There were some negatives in the Establishment Survey as well. In addition to most…

Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat This morning brought us both good and bad economic news. The good news was that initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000,…

…off. For forecasting purposes, the YoY% change for initial claims is -15.0%, while the four-week average is down -10.4%. Continuing claims are now only up 0.2%: Needless to say, these…

…their highest number but for 2 weeks in the past two years. On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims are down -9.5%, and the four week…

…to the all time low readings of 2005-07, indicating vulnerability to an adverse shock. One of my forecasting models uses such a shock as a recession warning indicator. In any…

…these are the two sectors I am paying particular attention to for forecasting purposes this year. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for…

…one week lag, continuing claims declined 19,000 to 1.791 million: On the more important YoY% basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 2.3%, while the four week average is…

…28,000 to 1.817 million: On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting purposes, weekly claims were down -4.1%, the four week average down -4.4%, and continuing claims up from last…