…the decelerating trend in employment shift to a more consistent “soft landing” scenario. Thus, real retail sales are forecasting continued growth in the neighborhood of the last few months’ numbers…

…exception of last spring, initial claims have been essentially rangebound for the entire last 2 years! For forecasting purposes, the YoY% change is more important. There, initial claims are down…

…200-225,000 range for over half a year! Finally, with the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -15,000 to 1.781 million: As per usual, for forecasting purposes the YoY range…

…all-time low range, indicating vulnerability to an adverse shock. One of my forecasting models uses such a shock as a recession warning indicator. In any event, there is no such…

…usual, the YoY% change is more important for forecasting purposes. On that basis initial claims were down -2.8%, the four week average down -3.1%, and continuing claims higher by 4.0%,…

…to 1.785 million, still one of the lowest readings since last August: As usual, the YoY% figures are more important for forecasting purposes. The weekly number was higher for the…

…nine month range: As per usual, the YoY% change is more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims are lower by -5.3%, and the four week average lower by -1.3%….

…per capita as low as they have been recently have generally been associated with economic downturns. And, per Jame Surowiecki, especially in election years, they are particularly salient metrics forecasting…

…As usual, though, the YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. Here, initial claims were down -5.2%, and the four week average down -2.0%. Continuing claims remained higher by…

 – by New Deal democrat My “quick and dirty” economic status indicator is the stock market (still making new all-time highs) and initial jobless claims, which are also still positive…