…without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively, for forecasting purposes. The…

…two year chart really pays off in showing the unresolved summer seasonality post-pandemic both in 2023 and this year. On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims…

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today or tomorrow, so let’s take a more detailed look at the leading indicators from Friday’s jobs report. It turns out,…

…the more important YoY comparisons for forecasting purposes, initial claims were unchanged, the four week moving average was down -0.8%, and continuing claims were higher by 2.2%: This YoY comparison…

…a steady real GDP somewhere in the neighborhood of 3% annualized this quarter. The Bonddad Blog Domestic factory orders and production vs. real imports as economic forecasting tools, Angry Bear…

…when we look at the YoY% comparisons, which are more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 4.3%, the four-week average up 1.2%, and continuing claims up 2.0%: The…

…mid-cycle correction rather than the cusp of a recession. The Bonddad Blog Domestic factory orders and production vs. real imports as economic forecasting tools, Angry Bear by New Deal democrat…

…2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting,…

…you can see from the above, all of these look pretty benign in absolute terms. But for forecasting purposes, the YoY% change is more important, and viewed that way, the…

– by New Deal democrat First things first: there’s almost no significant economic news at all this week until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a…