…by the ISM index has been contracting since 2022: Again, although I won’t repost the graph, because manufacturing is only about 1/4 of the US economy, for recession forecasting purposes…

…continuing claims rose 36,000 to 1.908 million, the highest since November 2021: As is usual, the YoY% numbers are more important for forecasting purposes, and there initial claims were unchanged,…

…coin and it comes up tails 3 times, the change that the next flip will come up head is 50%. People guess more than 50%. They are confusing forecasting and…

…the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing…

…a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well.  Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the JOLTS series have been deceleration…

…retain workers. MEPS-IC data has been used as: As a reliable economic forecasting tool. The health insurance data factor into the Gross Domestic Product or GDP, a measure used to…

…one week lag, declined -25,000 to 1.871 million: As per usual, the YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. So measured, initial claims were up 3.7%, the four week…

…official CPI. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed’s experimental new and all rent indexes, which are designed to lead the CPI for rents, for the last two quarters have been forecasting a…

…1.886 million, right in the middle of their range for the past two months: On the YoY basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 18.0%, while the…

…retail sales are forecasting continued deceleration – which at this point translates into increased weakness – in hiring in the months ahead. Because, as I have pointed out in several…