…Trump adviser Russell Vought before he returned to the White House as budget director — proposed to “fully commercialize” forecasting at the National Weather Service. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said he…

…over the past half a year: On the more important YoY% basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 1.9%, the four week average up 2.7%, and continuing claims up…

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales are not that important for forecasting purposes, since they have much less economic impact than new home sales, because the main effect…

…the YoY% change is more important for forecasting. So measured, initial claims were up 15.3%, the four week average up 7.5%, and continuing claims up 8.2%: One bad week is…

…important for forecasting purposes YoY% comparisons, initial claims were actually lower by -0.4% than the same week last year, while the four week average remained higher by 5.8%, and continuing…

…doing with pricing. Not so much because things cost more. They are taking advantage of a situation where they can increase prices or reduce package sizing and just blame economic…

…important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 3.2%, the four week average up 6.1%, and continuing claims up 5.1%: These YoY numbers are in line with what we have…

…dropped 12% compared to the same period last year. The figure excludes arrivals from Canada and Mexico. After forecasting a 5% dip for inbound travel to the US February 2025,…

…more likely it will not show up yet. Finally, let me close with an update of my “quick and dirty” economic forecasting indicator. This consists of (1) whether the stock…

…are having a harder time finding new employment. As usual, the YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes, and there the trend of the last 8 months remains intact,…