…are the least important for forecasting purposes, since the main thing that happens is only a change in ownership, and therefore they have much less economic impact than new home sales….

…set four week ago: On the more important for forecasting YoY basis, initial claims were down -8.1%, and the four week average down -4.1%. Only continuing claims were higher, by…

…at Capital Economics (forecasting firm) Harry Chambers . . . “The above-target rise in core prices in June, upward revisions to previous months’ data and the sharp rise in core…

…As per usual, the YoY% change is more important for forecasting purposes, and so measured, initial claims were lower by -3.4%, and the four week average down -7.8%, while continuing…

…is to gain customers. They are forecasting a better 2026 surpassing 2025. Services sector is stiill expanding. Labor productivity increased. Corporate earnings have not deteriorated. And Tr__p wants to rid…

…-15,000 to 1.953 million, still close to its 3.5+ year high: On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting, initial claims were down -1.8%, and the four week average down…

 – by New Deal democrat Forecasting has always been hard, and moreso since the supply chain issues of 2021-22 made reading the interest rate signals from the long leading indicators muddled….

…the case in the next few weeks. Returning to our regularly scheduled analysis, here are the YoY% changes that are more important for forecasting purposes. Initial claims were 1.3% higher…

…On a YoY basis, which is more important for forecasting, both the one week and four week average of initial claims were down -1.3%, while continuing claims were higher by…

…number below 50 indicates contraction, the ISM itself indicates that the number must be under 42.8 to signal recession.  Because of the report’s diminished importance, for forecasting purposes, I use…