– by New Deal democrat Although it ended almost three months ago, there are still many economic series that have not caught up, including construction spending, which would normally have been…

…the residual seasonality I have often spoken of. On the YoY basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 4.1%, but the four week average remained lower by…

 – by New Deal democrat Today is Presidents’ Day, so there are no official economic data releases; and there will be no significant releases tomorrow either, before a torrent of both…

…end) brought about by the Fed’s lowering interest rates has been getting a lot of attention as forecasting a good economy ahead, the rest of the long leading indicators aren’t…

…as usual, the YoY% change is more important for forecasting purposes; and it is here that we see continued evidence of a change in regime. On a YoY basis, initial…

…the two highest reading since August 2022: The three month average, which I use for forecasting purposes, rose to 51.0, the first time this average has shown expansion since January…

 – by New Deal democrat Along with the weekly update of retail sals, new jobless claims continue to be the most positive economic data in the entire specturm. Last week…

…solidly support a continued economic expansion (ok, maybe ISM manufacturing is trending in that way as well). But to the point of this post: last week initial jobless claims declined…

…strength, with services coming in at a very strong 60.6, the highest reading in three years, while manufacturing new orders declined to a still expansionary 53.5: For forecasting purposes, I…

…harbinger of near term recession: And the bad news doesn’t stop there. Remember that one of my big forecasting tools is real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls, showing the amount of $$$…