…the economic chaos emanating from Washington, and partly also because several important ones are in terra incognito. On Monday and Wednesday I updated the non-financial elements of the long leading…

…risen about 3%. This is a positive signal. But the best way of looking at money supply for forecasting purposes is YoY. As the historical graph below shows, no recession…

…procedures. This is a shame because those indexes have been developing a good record for forecasting the trend in rents in the CPI. But the bottom line is that all…

…one week delay, declined to 1.785 million: Here is the YoY% view most important for forecasting purposes: Initial claims are down a whopping -20.9% YoY, while the four week average…

…aren’t nearly as important as they used to be. So for forecasting purposes I use a weighted average of the ISM manufacturing (25%) and services (75%) reports, especially the three…

 – by New Deal democrat The most positive metric in all of economic metric-dom continues to be very positive. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 to 200,000 last week, still among…

…all of the current economic indicators. For the week, initial claims rose 12,000 to 211,000, while the four week moving average rose 750 to 203,750. Although I won’t put up…

…forecasting purposes, initial claims were lower by -7.1%, the four week moving average by -11.8%, and continuing claims by -5.7%: Needless to say, this is a very positive short-term indicator…

…of the total weighting; and further, it is more vulnerable to shocks than the services portion of the economy. Which means, for forecasting purposes, it is always a sector that…

…at the YoY% changes which are more important for forecasting purposes: On that basis, initial claims are down -7.8%, the four week average down -7.7%, and continuing claims down -6.3%….