…month. As usual, the YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. While the one week number was higher by 14.3%, the four week and monthly averages are much more…

…the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -7,000 to 1.920 million: On the YoY basis more important for forecasting purposes, however, initial claims were higher by 4.1%, the four…

…the situation of consumers is more precarious than it might appear on the surface. The Bonddad Blog The State of the Consumer: the nowcast recession forecasting tool, The Bonddad Blog…

…diminished importance, for forecasting purposes, I use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively. That briefly justified a…

…through all but the worst recessions, for forecasting purposes I rely on real personal spending on goods (gold) and real retail sales (blue): Real retail sales made a new 2.5…

– by New Deal democrat Among the economic data that is not being reported due to the federal government shutdown are initial and continuing jobless claims. Which, as I pointed…

…of speculation or forecasting. Nothing solid right now. Best place to read (I read him also) is Charles Gaba @ ACA Signups. ~~~~~~~ Republicans blame high healthcare costs on Obamacare….

…contraction, the ISM itself indicates that the number must be under 42.8 to signal recession.  Because of the report’s diminished importance, for forecasting purposes, I use an economically weighted three…

…because of manufacturing’s diminished importance to the general economy, the services index has become significantly more important. For forecasting purposes, I assign a 75% weight to services, and a 25%…

…four year high: On the YoY% basis I use for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 1.6%, the four week average up 2.6%, and continuing claims up 4.3%: The new…