…imperiling key services such as weather forecasting and the drug approval process.” Maybe handing the government over to a ketamine-fueled narcissist wasn’t such a great idea, Donald. DOGE is rehiring…

…million, the highest level since November 2021: While the above suggests a ratcheting up of weakness, the YoY% changes are most important for forecasting purposes, and so measured initial claims…

…trend we have seen for the past few weeks, on the YoY% basis more useful for recession forecasting, it was “more of the same.” Initial claims were up 3.4%, the…

…90% of all sales are the least important for forecasting purposes, since the main thing that happens is only a change in ownership, and therefore they have much less economic impact…

…residual seasonality makes the YoY% comparisons, which are more important for forecasting purposes, all the more salient.So measured, initial claims are up 1.3%, the four week average up 4.3%, and…

…have already begun. Last month I concluded that “because of the tariff situation, forecasting based on this report is particularly fraught. What we can say is that the consumer portion…

…and the four week moving average declined -3,750 to 241,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims were unchanged at 1.964 million: The more important for forecasting purposes YoY%…

Two important danger signals in the June employment report  – by New Deal democrat This is Ben Casellman, Chief Economic Correspondent for The NY Times’s take on last Friday’s employment…

…low numbers at the beginning of the year, rising through midyear, and then falling back down through the Holiday season. On the YoY% change more useful for forecasting, initial claims…

…million: On the YoY% basis more useful for forecasting, initial claims were down -7.9%, and the four week average down -1.6%, only the 3rd time in the past 10 months…