…forecasting purposes, I use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively. With today’s report, the three month average…

…two prior years. As per usual, the YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. So measured, initial claims were down -15.1%, the four week average down -1.9%, and continuing…

…and have generally remained in that range since. Of course, seasonality issues should be negated in the YoY% comparisons, which as I always point out, is more important for forecasting…

…but were still below 1.9 million at 1.897 million. On the YoY% basis which is more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 0.9%; the four week average still…

…and -3.5% from its secondary peak in early 2024. And keep in mind that the best forecasting model is to deflate this metric by real GDP – and since there…

…for forecasting purposes the YoY% changes are more important. Here, initial claims were -2.3% lower than one year ago, the four-week average down -4.2%, and continuing claims higher by 2.2%:…

…For forecasting purposes, I use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively. With today’s report, the three month…

…beginning of November. Nevertheless, initial claims remain very low historically compared with the last 50 years. As per usual, it is the YoY comparison which is most important for forecasting…

…more important for forecasting purposes. In that regard, initial claims were down -8.5% and the four week average down -3.5%. Only continuing claims remained higher, at 1.8%: The analysis remains…

…and a hint at what the administration plans if the Supreme Court rules against the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariffs. Let’s start there. National Economic Council Director Kevin…