Delays in ACA Healthcare Insurance Pricing
I have been looking around for more information, accurate information on the forthcoming increases in ACA healthcare insurance costs. I have yet to find something accurate. There is a lot of speculation or forecasting. Nothing solid right now. Best place to read (I read him also) is Charles Gaba @ ACA Signups.
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Republicans blame high healthcare costs on Obamacare. As with most of the things Republicans say, it has nothing to do with reality.
In fact, healthcare costs were rising far more rapidly before Obamacare was passed in 2010. In the decade before Obamacare passed, healthcare costs increased 4.0 percentage points as a share of GDP, the equivalent of more than $1.2 trillion in today’s economy.
By contrast, in the 15 years since its passage, healthcare costs have increased by just 1.4 percentage points of GDP. If healthcare costs had continued to rise at the pre-Obamacare rate, we would be spending another $1.4 trillion a year, $11,000 per household, on healthcare.
ACA (also known as Obamacare) was not the only factor in slowing healthcare cost growth, but it surely contributed to it. In any case, there is zero doubt that if healthcare cost growth had increased after 2010, Obamacare would be blamed. Given the reality, Republicans have their directions wrong. Obamacare slowed and did not raise, the rate of healthcare cost growth.
But even if Obamacare slowed healthcare cost growth, we still pay a ridiculous amount for healthcare. We pay twice as much as the average for other wealthy countries. Such spending with little to show in the form of better outcomes. Our total healthcare costs will come to over $5.4 trillion this year, more than $40,000 per household, or $16,000 per person. By comparison, Germany and the Netherlands both spend around $6,000 per person for their healthcare.
Back to reality . . . the real reason the constituency is facing mega increases in healthcare insurance costs?
A Republican led Congress “voted over 100 times to date on bills that would end, gut, or severely disfigure the ACA and finally got a good chunk of it done with their so-called “Big Beautiful Billionaire’s Bill” that handed Trump, Musk, Zuckerberg, et al over four trillion dollars in tax cuts, while making up for it by eviscerating ACA subsidies and Medicaid eligibility.” Tru_p’s plan to deliver unwarranted tax breaks to 1% of the population.
“The Real Drivers of High U.S. Healthcare Costs Exposed,” CEPR
“The Democratic Promise That Could Heal a Broken Nation,” The Hartmann Report


Is an inertial frame of reference based on an extremely general piece of data like %GDP actual a good way of thinking about this? Just the changes in composition of GDP from on time frame to the next raises questions that probably elude any convincing analysis. Maybe per capita costs versus median household incomes? There has to be a better parameter to look at I think. Like my youngest son grew a lot this year but we don’t project him to be 13 feet tall at high school graduation.
Eric:
Not your librarian. Look it up yourself and let us know. One factor. In 2023, the US cost of healthcare was #1 per capita. It was ~twice as much as the average according to KFF.