Real aggregate payrolls and inflation preview for September  – by New Deal democrat Tomorrow consumer prices for September will be reported. It’s almost certain that the best short term forecasting…

…1.897 million: On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 6.6%, the four week average up 13.3%, and continuing claims up 4.8%: We won’t have…

…most economically important because of all the new economic activity involved in construction, landscaping, and furnishing. And my usual caveat: new home sales are the single most leading metric for…

– by New Deal democrat Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser, like me, is an Old School blogger, and like me, is focused on forecasting.  Yesterday he wrote a piece about…

…delay, continuing claims declined -26,000 to 1.862 million: The good news is that, on the more important YoY% change basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims were completely unchanged from one…

…occurring, I now use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively, for forecasting purposes. Including October, here are…

…2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting,…

…the YoY% comparisons are more important for forecasting purposes. And here, the hurricane effects have almost all disappeared. Initial claims are higher by only 2.3%, the four week moving average…

…the YoY% comparisons are more important for forecasting purposes. And here, the hurricane effects have almost all disappeared. Initial claims are higher by only 2.3%, the four week moving average…

…and continuing claims are forecasting roughly a 5% increase in the unemployment rate; i.e., 3.8% * 1.005 = roughly 4.0%. Anything significantly above that is likely due to the continued…