…why I pay more attention to real retail sales as a forecasting tool. First, to the data: personal income increased nominally by 0.3% in November, while nominal spending increased only…

…important to note that the massive seasonal revisions. They were announced 2 weeks ago did not significantly affect the YoY comparisons. For forecasting purposes, this metric continues to warrant a…

…last week to 230,000. The more important 4 week average declined -4,000 to 236,000. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined -3,000 to 1.858 million: More importantly for forecasting…

…contraction since last summer, although it too rose in April from 44.3 to 45.7: Needless to say, this indicator has been forecasting and continues to forecast recesion. Construction was mixed,…

…1.742 million: For forecasting purposes, the more important comparison is YoY. By this metric, initial claims were up 12.2%, and the more important 4 week average up 18.8%. Continuing claims…

…declined -3,500 to 253,250. With a one week lag, continued claims declined -13,000 to 1.20 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 17.1% YoY. The more important…

…forecasting purposes the YoY change is more important. Here’s another look at the “jobless claims lead the unemployment rate” metric. The below graphs measure the YoY% change in jobless claims,…

…reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had a sharp increase in permits…

…237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%,…

…are generally 5 month lows. The more important YoY% change for forecasting purposes also declined, to 4.7% for initial claims, 9.1% for the more important 4 week average, and 28.3%…