Four week average of initial claims drops below “yellow flag” level, for now
Four week average of initial claims drops below “yellow flag” level, for now
– by New Deal democrat
While GDP will get the lion’s share of attention today (and I’ll post on it later on), by and large it is a look in the rear view mirror. The more forward-looking data is weekly jobless claims.
This week initial claims declined -16,000 last week to 230,000. The more important 4 week average declined -4,000 to 236,000. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined -3,000 to 1.858 million:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX2nAcWmB0F2hzQ25A2WEEvpnQoCYVCM6nfQBYR5vQZku50XPcdIFqYa7LJMKc163yudzkhRisDePrpiiN3RiQ5l9IJpUZnx_R0jHjrClEM6Ku_0ys2v6eZIfzSUY85XazbkgLdmxDg2snKVDCCjuAbObms1PMuOhIJdvaeOw_JzyHdh7f7KaA4uM0fg/w400-h173/DD980268-916F-4FE4-A2D8-FB25D9B8E0C2.jpeg)
More importantly for forecasting purposes, YoY initial claims were up 11.1%, the 4 week average up 9.8%, and continuing claims up 22.1%:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeuzl14AFtac6xBwe-4BuqpegoZwzDk7vVjHu5KOSVwvmf4eFik_ECqpoWKnX-cb34muQEULRY3TERqSyt6r6uoHZGlF1rD1WMp-EbfGrq-Po3Wt3qzWdDO_UrLgvkXlp7ygHe7p3eFxNe38uIp84eU4BKSkL_-BoXlh8H1M7s-2l2euX1-meCIi__zw/w400-h169/604F5A02-AC37-4377-A5F4-88304D48E3B3.jpeg)
That the 4 week average declined below 10% removes the “yellow flag” recession caution for the moment, although the increase in continuing claims is consistent with a recession in the immediate future.
Jobless claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag – continuing claims shade closer to crimson, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat