– by New Deal democrat
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month. Interest rates, especially mortgage rates, have declined (in the case of mortgages, by 1 full % from their peak. As many have pointed out, gas prices have fallen by about $1/gallon from their peak as well. That is putting more money into consumers’ pockets for other things. And stock prices have also reversed, nearing a 3 month high.
While that doesn’t negative the message of the long or short leading indicators in the past, it certainly can change their forecasting meaning going forward. In other words, even if we have a recession – which looks nearly certain by now – it *might* be short and shallow.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you fully up to date, and reward me with a penny or two for my efforts.