Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators April 24 – 28

 Weekly Indicators for April 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important short leading indicators rallied this week. In particular, the stock market seems to think the worst is over (for the moment!). At the same time, several important coincident indicators of taxation […]

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly data. For March, […]

Healthcare Utilization, Costs, and Pricing Drivers – 2017 and 2021

Health Care Cost and Utilization Report, healthcostinstitute.org, April 2023 Year-over-year and 5-year cumulative trends in health care spending for individuals with employer-sponsored insurance. A detailed report by the Health Care Cost Institute covering the period 2017 – 2021 which includes the Covid pandemic. Decreases i total costs were seen during the pandemic. Still in the […]

Leading components of Q1 GDP paint a mixed picture

Leading components of Q1 GDP paint a mixed picture – by New Deal democrat As you probably already know, real GDP increased 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in Q1. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the economy improved throughout the period. The median GDP for the quarter where post WW2 recessions have begun was […]

Four week average of initial claims drops below “yellow flag” level, for now

Four week average of initial claims drops below “yellow flag” level, for now  – by New Deal democrat While GDP will get the lion’s share of attention today (and I’ll post on it later on), by and large it is a look in the rear view mirror. The more forward-looking data is weekly jobless claims. This […]

House Debt Ceiling Bill

voting 217 Yes 215 no the House has passed a bill which would increase the debt ceiling, slash spending, and repeal (most of) the IRA. This ends the fun period when we could laugh at Republicans for demanding that Biden negotiate without themselves making a bargaining proposal. The bill is horrible. I am a Democrat […]

Debt

To be clear, our national debt problem is due to revenues insufficient to cover expenditures. More than anything else, for the past 40 plus years, this accumulated deficit is due to Republican opposition to tax increases coupled with their eagerness to cut taxes on the wealthy given the opportunity to do so. Most, if indeed […]

Are home sales bottoming?

 Are Home Sales Bottoming? – by New Deal democrat For the past few months, I have speculated that home sales were bottoming. This morning’s report on March new home sales put an exclamation mark on that idea. New home sales increased 57,000 in March (from a February level downwardly revised by -17,000) to 683,000 annualized […]

House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February

House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February  – by New Deal democrat House prices through February as measured by both the FHFA (gold in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (red) Indexes rose, the former by 0.5% (after a downwardly revised 0.1% in January), and the latter by […]

Income tax withholding payments stumble again

Income tax withholding payments stumble again  – by New Deal democrat The important data this week will include new home sales tomorrow, Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims on Thursday, and most importantly of all (imo) real personal income and spending, along with real manufacturing and trade sales on Friday. In the meantime, today let […]